Flags flying at the Allée des Nations in front of the Palace of Nations (United Nations Office at Geneva). Photo by Tom Page, Wikimedia Commons.

Complexities In The Modern World – OpEd

 February 10, 2023  Eurasia Review  0 Comments

By Kazi Anwarul Masud

Tired of sabre rattling for thirty years the European powers settled on the Peace of Westphalia which after a long period set for Europe some rules that would guarantee peace for many years.

“The Westphalia peace came to lay the foundation for a modern European state, it helped the emergence of international law, which was based on many international principles and laws that regulate international relations between states in order to control the deteriorating situation and prevent the use of power. It stressed the principle of international balance and made it a necessity, and thus this principle will create a balance between States and prevent the use of the policy of violence and power and domination in international relations.” (THE WESTPHALIA PEACE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE MODERN EUROPIAN STATE ZREIK, M. Faculty of Politics and International Studies, Central China Normal University, Hubei, China ).

But for the emergence of Adolf Hitler who had a penchant for the acquisition of land peopled by German-speaking population which was further emboldened by Lord Palmerstone’s misplaced assurance to the British people that peace had been secured Hitler continued his grabbing of countries regardless of the opposition of the local people. Hitler received his coup de grace through his invasion of Russia and his nemesis in the form of Russian dictator Joseph Stalin. American involvement initially through the supply of military hardware and then the open declaration of war caused by Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.

After the defeat of both Germany and Japan at the Yalta Conference President Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin agreed that after Germany’s unconditional surrender, it would be divided into four post-war occupation zones, controlled by U.S., British, French, and Soviet military forces. The city of Berlin would also be divided into similar occupation zones. Japan’s unconditional surrender was announced by Emperor Hirohito in August and the surrender document was signed in September 1945.

But Japan today is now with the American allies and is a bulwark against China and North Korea combined. Eleanor Albert writes ( June 25th, 2019) that China’s support for North Korea dates back to the Korean War (1950–1953) when its troops flooded the Korean Peninsula to aid its northern ally. Since the war, China has lent political and economic backing to North Korea’s leaders: Kim Il-sung (estimated 1948–1994), Kim Jong-il (roughly 1994–2011), and Kim Jong-un. But strains in the relationship surfaced when Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and Beijing backed UN Security Council Resolution that imposed sanctions on Pyongyang.

After North Korea’s missile launch test in November 2017, China called on North Korea to cease actions that increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Still, China’s punitive steps have been somewhat restrained. While China has backed UN resolutions, in some cases it has withheld support until they were watered down.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Sino-Russian entente has changed the scenario in global politics. There is an element of ideology through which China-Russia wants to prove that the dictatorial system can provide essential commodities to the needy faster than the democratic system can.

In any case, democracy is practiced in the Western countries that are rich while poverty-ridden countries of South Asia and Africa are dependent on fulfilling the conditions laid down by IMF-IBRD-ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK which these countries are unable to fulfill. It would be unfair to say that international banks are unwilling to help out the needy. On the contrary, they would like poor countries to follow a guideline for growth and prosperity. China however has the advantage of geographical proximity to poor countries in South Asia, cultural affinity with Singapore, and the reluctance of ASEAN to be aligned with either the US and Sino-Russian alignment.

One can travel a few decades back when Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah. India’s Pandit Nehru, Indonesia’s Sukarno, and UAE’s Gamal Abdul Nasser refused to join the Western bloc and founded the Non-Alignment Movement to be free to choose their country’s destiny. Those days have changed with China’s rise as the second richest country in the world. China’s rise is now akin to Xi-Jinping’s ambition not only regarding Taiwan which he regards as an integral part of mainland China but also to implement his Belt and Road Initiative.

Dr. Yu Jie and John Wallace of Chatham House explain that the BRI is an ambitious plan to develop two new trade routes connecting China with the rest of the world. But the initiative is about far more than infrastructure. It is an effort to develop an expanded, interdependent market for China, grow China’s economic and political power, and create the right conditions for China to build a high-technology economy.

There are three main motivations for the BRI. The first, and most discussed internationally, is China’s rivalry with the US. The vast majority of Chinese international trade passes by sea through the Malacca strait off the coast of Singapore which is a major US ally. The initiative is integral to China’s efforts to create its own more secure trade routes. Besides China wants to make participating nations interdependent with the Chinese economy, and thereby build economic and political influence for China.

In that respect it has similarities with the Marshall Plan that followed the Second World War — but with the essential difference that China dispenses funding to other nations based purely on shared economic interests. But there are considerable differences between the US and China. Real GDP growth rate: 6.9 in the US and 2.2 for China. Military and security expenditure: 2 % of GDP for the US and 3.29% for China. It would be fallacious to bracket the US and China as close competitors. Surely China is going up but to match the US (now along with her allies) will be wrong.

Finally, it is difficult to predict how the US and its allies will react to the Sino-Russian alignment. Whether the West will play the Goldilocks game: having or producing a balance between two extremes; or take seriously the Sino-Russian alignment-both ideologically, militarily, and strategically. UN Secretary-General is optimistic about a diplomatic solution. So it is believed by the rest of the world. In most recent Russian statements ( given the constitutional complexities that exist for Putin which do not apply in the case of the US) it is doubtful that a political solution would not be found.

 

Is Europe Facing Its First Change In Fifty Years? – OpEd

 February 6, 2023  Eurasia Review  0 Comments

By Kazi Anwarul Masud

ORIGIN OF TREATY OF WESTPHALIA

Perhaps for the first time in European history then major powers fatigued from long thirty years war rested their sabre  in The Treaty of Westphalia. (1618-1648). The war was a religious war. It started when Austrian Habsburgs tried to impose Roman Catholicism on their Protestant subjects in Bohemia.

It pitted Protestant against Catholic, the Holy Roman Empire against France, the German princes and princelings against the emperor and each other, and France against the Habsburgs of Spain. The Swedes, the Danes, the Poles, the Russians, the Dutch and the Swiss were all dragged in or dived in. The wars, participate by the big and small powers, dragged on for thirty years ushering in poverty for the already poor and rapacity to the unpaid soldiers and women of bad repute who lost their livelihood due to loss of customers. 

RESULTS OF THE TREATY

The treaty gave the Swiss independence of Austria and the Netherlands independence of Spain. The German principalities secured their autonomy. Sweden gained territory and a payment in cash, Brandenburg and Bavaria made gains too, and France acquired most of Alsace-Lorraine. The prospect of a Roman Catholic reconquest of Europe vanished forever. Protestantism was in the world to stay. (Richard Cavendish |  History Today Volume 48 Issue 10 October 1998).

The Treaty of Westphalia did not end the hunger of war among the people of the world who on different pretexts continue till today their quest for power. From Grecian time luminaries like Plato and Aristotle had given thoughts on how nations were to be formed and hoe people should be organized and made to behave. M. A.  Habib of Rutgers University in one of his articles wrote “ in assessing precisely what modern European thought owes to its classical heritage, we need to confront the stubborn fact that Plato and Aristotle stood opposed to both the major philosophical and political tendencies of modern liberalism (empiricism, materialism, pragmatism, utilitarianism and the various forms of individualism) and the more recent theoretical attempts (such as deconstruction, Marxism and Feminism) to undermine those liberal dogmas. 

PLATO AND ARISTOTLE’ CRITICISM OF DEMOCRACY

The positions of Plato and Aristotle on nearly of these issues are concentrated in their respective critiques of democracy”. Habib added “ In the Republic Plato suggests that there five basic forms of government. His own ideal constitution can be conceived as either royalty or aristocracy, where sovereignty lies with the carefully trained guardians. The other four forms represent a progressive degeneration away from this model: timocracy. (where the pursuit of honour is paramount), oligarchy, democracy and tyranny.

Plato also describes five basic kinds of individual characters or souls, corresponding to the respective forms of government”.  In Plato’s thinking oligarchy was prominent and the city was divided into two sections-rich and the poor. Aristotle also agreed with Plato that democracy was not the ideal form of government. Democracy, he thought, can lead to excessive greed for power effectively transforming the greed into oligarchy and consequent rule by a plutocracy. 

UNCERTAIN RESULTS OF RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE 

Today the world is gripped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and an unclear path where the invasion will lead the mankind. Russia has already threatened use of nuclear weapons. But then it is not clear what type of nuclear weapons is to be used. Then there is the distinct possibility of a China-Russia alliance to demonstrate to the poor and the hungry, in particular, that authoritarian system which provides goods to the hungry is better than the democratic system suggested by the Western block.

One is inclined to support Vladimir Putin who long time back had proposed to the US to sign an agreement that Ukraine would not join either the NATO or any Russian alliance that would threaten Russian security. A CBC news dated April 2021 reported Russian President Vladimir Putin sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia’s security interests, saying Moscow’s response will be “quick and tough” and make the wrongdoers feel bitterly sorry for their actions. 

VLADIMIR PUTIN’S RED LINE

The warning came during Putin’s annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent past.  The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line in respect to Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case,” Putin said. “Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time.”

Moscow has rejected Ukrainian and Western concerns about the troop buildup, saying it doesn’t threaten anyone and Russia is free to deploy its forces on its territory. But the Kremlin also has warned Ukraine against trying to use force to retake control of the rebel-held east, saying Russia could be forced to intervene to protect civilians in the region. “We really don’t want to burn the bridges,” Putin said. “But if some mistake our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intend to burn or even blow up those bridges themselves, Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, quick and tough.” 

WESTERN RESPONSE TO PUTIN’S RED LINE

Western response has been has been Ukranian President’s invitation to address the US both Houses of Parliament, meting with President Joe Biden, Western supply of armaments to Ukraine etc. A defiant Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenshiy   has announced that Ukraine is officially applying for membership of NATO, hours after Vladimir Putin said in a Kremlin ceremony that he was annexing four Ukrainian provinces.  

Zelenskiy said he was taking this “decisive step” in order to protect “the entire community” of Ukrainians. He promised the application would happen in an “expedited manner”.  “De facto, we have already made our way to NATO . De facto, we have already proven compatibility with alliance standards. They are real for Ukraine – real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction,” he said. “We trust each other, we help each other, and we protect each other. This is the alliance. De facto. Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure.” ( 30-09-2022-The Guardan). The very fact that Putin has announced his ‘red line” is an indication that Russia would be willing to come to a settlement with Ukraine but not if the settlement appears to be a victory for Ukraine. It would be advisable for the Western countries, in particular, the US to advise Ukraine to settle with Russia. US also ,has to be on guard over China-Russia alliance particularly when President Joe Biden has already declared China as the main enemy of the US. (An analysis by Andrew Scobell and Nichlas Swanson 15-12-2023). 

CHINA-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE

The Ukrainian crisis  gives a picture of Russo-China alliance. Russian move is more direct vis-à-vis the US while the Chinese though firmly in the Russian camp prefers to walk softly except in the case of Taiwan. Some have argued that Russo-China axis constitute a full-blown military alliance. But months into the invasion of Ukraine China has not sent any military equipment to Russia. But there remains a question whether Russia has asked for or needs military help from China. China supports Russia economically. Intra-alliance economic relations have strengthened. Chinese shipment to Russia have increased more than 26% compared to the year before and imports have increased more than 60% during the same period.

On the Ukraine invasion China has not criticized Russia. On the other hand Xi-Jinping has reportedly told President Joe Biden at the G-20 summit meeting in Indonesia that China was highly concerned over the invasion and would like peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Xi-Jinping suggested that US, NATO AND EU should conduct comprehensive dialogue with Russia. It thought that rock solid solidarity among NATO members have helped the invasion of Ukraine from spreading to other countries. Besides Sweden and Finland, strongly non-aligned so long, to rethink that their security would be better ensured by joining the bloc.  Finally one would hope that the tension  that has gripped the world till today would throw ray of light in the minds of the leaders for humanity to survive without volcanic convulsions. 

US President Joe Biden with China's President Xi Jinping. Photo Credit: Mehr News Agency

Complexity Of Relations Between US-China-Japan And North Korea – OpEd

 January 20, 2023  Eurasia Review  0 Comments

By Kazi Anwarul Masud

Luminary Joseph Nye Jr would like the USA to adopt a policy of avoiding “demonizing each other (i.e. China) and realize that the relationship is not like the Cold War. There is much more economic, social and ecological interdependence between the US and China than ever existed between the US and the Soviet Union.

Instead, policy-makers should see the relationship as a ‘cooperative rivalry’ or ’competitive coexistence’ with equal attention to both parts of the description”. The problem facing the global insecurity is mainly due to the inexperience of Xi-Jinping in dealing with super powers following the Second World War.

Inexperience of Xi-Jinping to handle super powers

Absent were Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachevian who had the foresight to propose advancing comprehensive proposals dealing with strategic offensive and defensive weapons. Agreement seemed at hand for reductions of at least 50 percent in strategic offensive arms. When Reagan proposed a subsequent elimination of all strategic ballistic missiles, Gorbachev counter proposed eliminating all strategic nuclear weapons. Reagan then said he would be prepared to eliminate all nuclear weapons—and Gorbachev promptly agreed.

Contrarily Xi Jinping after the recently held CCP meeting where he appears to have surpassed Mao Tse Tung electing himself President for life.  “Cold warriors lived most obviously in the United States and the Soviet Union, but because the Cold War enveloped the world its warriors were everywhere. They included the Presidents of the USA from Harry S. Truman to George H. W. Bush, and their secretaries of state, among them John Foster Dulles, Dean Rusk, and Henry Kissinger.

Many other U.S. government officials were cold warriors: appointees such as George F. Kennan, Paul Nitze, and Jeanne Kirkpatrick, and elected representatives including senators William Knowland, Joseph McCarthy, and Hubert H. Humphrey. There were members of the intelligence community (J. Edgar Hoover, Edward G. Lansdale, William Colby), prominent journalists who interpreted the Cold War to the American people (Walter Lippmann, James Reston), and theologians, among them Billy Graham, who saw the Cold War as a moral challenge to Americans.

In the Soviet Union a commitment to the Cold War was necessary for the leaders who followed joseph Stalin after 1953, from Nikita Khrushchev to Konstantin Chernenko. The ideologue Andrei Zhdanov was a cold warrior of the first magnitude. Soviet diplomats carried out their superiors’ orders but contributed as well their own mite to the conflict; among them were the longtime foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov and the ambassador to the United States Andrei Gromyko. Lavrenti Beria, head of Stalin’s secret police, maintained a bloodstained vigil against all forms of Cold War heterodoxy. (Andrew J Rotter-May 21 2018).  

World change From Mao to Xi-jinping 

Many pages of history have gone by. Mao’s China is no longer the China of Xi-Jinping. Yet basically both Mao and Xi-Jinping have very little value for human lives. During Mao’s fight to establish Communism in China millions of people died of hunger and fighting. This fact was brought to the notice of Mao Tse Tung but his responses were that the deaths were inevitable under such circumstances. Xi-Jinping is not callous about human deaths as his response to covid-19 has shown despite his utmost efforts to contain news from spreading out. He succeeded to control the panic within China because of Orwellian tactics employed within the geographical area of China. The situation is Orwellian as described by George Orwell’s novel Nineteen Eighty Four where  all citizens of Oceania, an imagined place in the novel,  are monitored by cameras, are given  fabricated news stories by the government, forced to worship a mythical government leader called Big Brother, (XiJinping in the case of China)are indoctrinated to believe baseless statements and are subject to torture and execution if they question the order of things.

Contrarily the Davos meeting held recently is equally obnoxious because the attendees who have gone to the best schools and have no connection with the poor speak on poverty and how to remove this curse from the face of the earth. 

Hamilton Nolan on Davos

Hamilton Nolan (The Guardian-Australian Edition) has written in a recent article “The utility of any actually worthwhile networking or communication or information-sharing that occurs in the halls of Davos pales in comparison to the inferno of disgust that its existence stokes among millions of angry, mistreated, locked out people around the world who will never set foot inside its security cordon. If nothing else, the attendees of Davos should shut it down out of pure self-interest. They’re making everyone mad.”

He added “ The only useful thing that happens at Davos each year is the release of Oxfam’s report on economic inequality, a document that always drives home exactly why Davos is a monstrosity. This year, Oxfam found that the richest 1% of people had pocketed two-thirds of all the wealth created in the past two years”.

In this milieu where do countries like Bangladesh fit in? We have neither the muscle nor the wealth. 

Bangladesh between China and India

Bangladesh has to steer its way between India and China. Now that President Joe Biden has already declared China as the foremost enemy of the USA and having lost unipolarity that the US had been enjoying since 1954 and is busy repairing the damage wrought by President Donald Trump and building a bridge of freedom loving countries of the world particularly the European Union countries (Germany may be the odd man out despite its support to Ukraine).

As mentioned earlier US Presidents from Reagan to Joe Biden have consistently followed an anti-China policy mainly because, according to \an analyst, on present evidence, Beijing’s ambitions are to be the ‘hegemonic’ power in the Indo-Pacific. In this scenario, China will be increasingly belligerent, willing to use its ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ to challenge the ‘rules-based order’ put into place by the West and weaponize its multilateral presence. 

Is Chinese belligerence matched by its economic performance

China’s belligerence is not matched by its economic performance. Due to covid China posted one of the worst economic performances in decades. Washington was convinced that Chinese militarization has to be checked despite the fact that China was miles behind the US in armament and in economic performance. But because of Xi jinping’s sabre rattling Washington decided for rearmament of Japan.

In a recent meeting President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister vowed to work together to transform Japan into a potent military power to help counterbalance China and to bolster the alliance between the two nations so that it becomes the linchpin for their security interests in Asia. Japan was infuriated by China’s lobbing of missiles around Taiwan five of which landed in waters by Japan, the first time this had happened. And Japan is increasingly anxious over greater maritime activity by the Chinese military in the East China Sea and around the Senkaku Islands, which is disputed territory between the two governments. This was a departure from the period of General MacArthur’s landing in Japan and the start of the Korean war that ended in the bifurcation of the Korean peninsula into south and north Korea.  

Kim Jong-il and North Korea

Unfortunately for global peace North Korea is now ruled by Kim Jong-il one of the worst kind of dictators imaginable. Kim- jong il’s nuclear brinkmanship has put the world at edge. In June 2018 summit meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump in Singapore, marking the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of North Korea and the United States in history. The summit resulted in a joint declaration from both parties, as Trump and Kim agreed to “establish new US-DPRK relations.   

The summit did not yield substantive plans for denuclearization. The July 2018 revelation of the existence of a covert uranium enrichment site suggested that North Korea was still concealing nuclear sites from the international community, which complicated any nuclear deal making. Leading North Korea expert Jeffrey Lewis argued that Kim’s statements instead suggested a willingness to “engage in a process, headed toward an ambiguous goal.” In short the US remains uncertain about peace in Japan and Korean peninsula. 

Russian invasion of Ukraine and global instability

Russian invasion of Ukraine remains the central point of global instability. Added is the Taiwan issue which remains for Xi-Jinping and the Chinese people close to their heart. A Chinese government read out after Presidents Joe Bien and Xi-Jinping in Indonesia in November 2022 stated that “Anyone that seeks to split Taiwan from China will be violating the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation; the Chinese people will absolutely not let that happen! We hope to see, and are all along committed to, peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, but cross-Strait peace and stability and ‘Taiwan independence’ are as irreconcilable as water and fire”.  

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and ambassador of Bangladesh

 

Economic Prospects For South Asia In Coming Years – OpEd 

 January 16, 2023  Eurasia Review  0 Comments

By Kazi Anwarul Masud

An article written more than ten years back (FORBES Poverty and corruption) highlighted the nexus between corruption and poverty. The article stated “poverty invites corruption, while corruption deepens poverty. Corruption both causes and thrives upon weaknesses in key economic, political and social institutions.”

Trust—essential to financial markets and effective governments everywhere–is difficult to build in poor and corrupt societies. Poor people and economically strapped businesses have few economic alternatives, and where serious corruption is the norm, they are even more vulnerable to exploitation. In that sense, there is no such thing as “petty” corruption: all types of corruption help keep poor people poor. In poor societies, low level officials are often underpaid, when they are paid at all, and must provide a stream of payments to patrons at higher levels. In such settings, bribery, extortion and theft become matters of survival. 

But if we draw back from that isolated transaction, the deeply damaging dynamics become evident. A firm that pays up is telling those underpaid or unpaid officials that they can make money by dragging their feet, “losing” paperwork or contriving new requirements, forms and delays.” Such payments  flash quickly through an economy and a bureaucracy, particularly where legitimate opportunities are scarce, making for even more corruption. In corrupt markets and public bidding processes, inefficient firms and dishonest bidders have major advantages over honest competitors. Connections and cash, rather than innovation and excellence, become the ways to win contracts.” Such practice discourages investors leading to lack of employment and deepens poverty in the economy.  The victims are invariably the poorest of the poor and the beneficiaries are the political establishments in the country. The scenario remains unchanged in all developing and under-developed countries. 

POVERTY AND CORRUPTION NEXUS

Ebenezer Obeng-Afroki in his article  (The Nexus Between Poverty and Corruption Project Management| Political Analysis|  Published Feb 5, 2018) has given the picture of Ghana which can be replicated in all poor countries where the poor have to pay for services which should be available to them free of cost because illiteracy and gender discrimination forces the poor to go through middle men who have political connection and are basically front men of the powerful politician. It is an elite activity writes Ebeneger Obeng-Akrofi.

In Bangladesh when we read newspapers almost every day   we come across stories of stolen money from banks, financial institutions, and projects approved by the government with price escalation every few years. Many of these “governments” are run by armed gangs who refuse to tolerate any dissention among the people because the price of dissention, more often than not, ends in kidnapping and murder.  

CORRUPTION IN BANGLADESH

A review by (Transparency International Overview of corruption and anti-corruption in Bangladesh 07-11-22 ) gives a clearer picture of poverty in Bangladesh. The report says that though Bangladesh’s economy has steadily expanded in the last decade, with a 6% economic growth in 2010. It however remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Indeed Bangladesh has made significant improvements in a number of social sectors such as gender parity in education, reduction of child mortality etc. However, corruption, patronage networks, misallocation and wasted funds have slowed down the economy and prevented the country from making a developmental leap (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2012).  

Bangladesh is the 22d most corrupt country in the region.  Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer 2011: almost half of the respondents consider that corruption has increased in Bangladesh.  Consistent with these findings, the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 states that business executives perceive corruption as the second most significant obstacles to doing business in Bangladesh. According to the WEF Global Competitiveness Index, inefficient government bureaucracy has always been high up on the list of obstacles for doing business in the country.  

According to Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer 2011, 72% of the surveyed citizens admit having paid a bribe in recent years, with the police, the judiciary the registry and permit service and the land services being the top recipients. The household survey conducted by Transparency International Bangladesh in 2010 shows that the average amount of annual per household bribe is about US dollar $40, compared to $22 in 2007. The Transparency International report adds that Bangladesh is the 22d most corrupt country in the region, out of 35 countries. 

CORRUPTION AND INVESTMENT 

World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 states that business executives perceive corruption as the second most significant obstacles to doing business in Bangladesh just after infrastructure. The Bangladeshi administration is burdensome and ineffective due to corruption, politicization and lack of resources (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2012).

According to the WEF Global Competitiveness Index, inefficient government bureaucracy has always been high up on the list of obstacles for doing business in the country, which encourages the use of bribery to speed up or “grease” administrative processes. According to Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer 2011, 72% of the surveyed citizens admit having paid  bribe in the to  the police, the judiciary the registry and permit service and the land services being the top recipients. The household survey conducted by Transparency International Bangladesh in 2010 shows that the average amount of annual per household bribe is about US dollar $40, compared to $22 in 2007.   

POLITICAL CORRUPTION

Political corruption is widespread in Bangladesh: citizens perceive political parties and the Parliament as some of the most corrupt institutions of their country (Transparency International, 2011). The main political parties’ internal governance frameworks are inadequate; there is a lack of internal democracy and their practices are insufficiently transparent. The principal political parties are further characterized by the dominating influence of a small number of families and their functioning has been qualified as dynastic (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2012). The legal safeguards guaranteeing the integrity of political party financing are not sufficient. A 2009 study on political party financing by Transparency International Bangladesh showed that while Bangladesh has a reasonable set of legal provisions to promote transparency in political finance compared to other regional countries, enforcement of the legal provisions is the weak.  

Although the electoral law provides that in course of nomination of candidates for national election, preferences of party leaders and supporters at the local level should be taken into consideration, the candidate selection system of the main parties tends to favor wealthy individuals who can buy their nomination through covert financial contributions to the party (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2012). According to Freedom House 2011, Bangladesh is an electoral democracy, and it has adopted universal suffrage and the right to campaign. The 2008 elections were considered free and fair (Bertelsmann Foundation, Overview of corruption and anti-corruption in Bangladesh 2012).  

BARTELSMANN FOUNDATION REPORTS

The Bertelsmann Foundation established in 2008, was created to promote and strengthen the transatlantic relationship. The foundation is an arm of the Germany-based Bertelsmann Stiftung. The Foundation is not an enemy of Bangladesh nor of poverty-stricken countries of the world. Like IMF. IBRD and Asian Development Bank the Foundation is dedicated to help poverty-stricken part of the world to hope for better future. Maria Gumerov writes in The Atlantic magazine the obvious truth i.e. that poverty remains a blockade in the path of Bangladesh transiting into a developing country.

As a low-lying country situated on the Bay of Bengal, Maria Gumerov explains Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to violent weather patterns that regularly destroy crops, homes and lives. Since agriculture supports almost half the population, the losses can be especially devastating.  Furthermore, lack of infrastructure stands in the way of growth.

Dhaka, the capital city alone, creates severe traffic that chokes more than three million hours of productivity in a day, which costs the country millions of dollars lost in GDP per year. Bangladesh is the 22d most corrupt country in the region, out of 35 countries. Bangladeshi citizens also perceive corruption as an increasing problem in their country.  Almost half of the respondents consider that corruption has increased in Bangladesh in the past 3 years and adding those who think that the level of corruption stayed the same bringing the number to 64%. Moreover, 72% of the surveyed citizens reported having experienced bribery in recent years. 

Consistent with these findings, the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 that states business executives perceive corruption as the second most significant obstacles to doing business in Bangladesh.    Forms of corruption are varied.  

The Bangladeshi administration is burdensome and ineffective due to corruption, politicization and lack of resources (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2012). According to the WEF Global Competitiveness Index, inefficient government bureaucracy has always been high up on the list of obstacles for doing business in the country which can encourage the use of bribery to speed up or “grease” administrative processes. According to Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer 2011, 72% of the surveyed citizens admit having paid bribe in recent past to   the police, the judiciary the registry and permit service and the land services being the top recipients. The household survey conducted by Transparency International Bangladesh in 2010 shows that the average amount of annual per household bribe is about US dollars $40, compared to $22 in 2007. Corruption in Bangladesh is all pervasive. People ask: is there a way out? 

WORLD BANK ON BANGLADESH RECOVERY

World Bank Report of April 12 2021 states that Bangladesh’s economy is showing nascent signs of recovery backed by a rebound in exports, strong remittance inflows, and the ongoing vaccination program.   After being severely affected by the COVID 19 pandemic—which slowed growth and for the first time in two decades reversed the poverty reduction trend—the economy is recovering gradually. Over the first half of FY21, factories reopened and exports rebounded. However, the economy faces elevated risks in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In Dhaka and Chittagong, the country’s two largest cities, recent surveys pointed to a recovery in the labor market in the first half of FY21. With gradual restoration of livelihoods, food security in poor and slum areas improved. In Chittagong, the percentage of adults working had returned to pre-COVID levels by February 2021.  

“Despite the uncertainty created by COVID-19, the outlook for Bangladesh’s economy is positive. Much of the pace of recovery will depend on how fast mass vaccination can be achieved,” said Mercy Miyang Tembon, World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan. “The World Bank will support a resilient recovery, helping Bangladesh achieve green, smart, and inclusive growth.” In FY21, growth will be supported by a recovery in manufacturing as export demand strengthens, a rebound in construction supported by accelerating public investment, and robust service sector growth as the vaccination campaign progress. inflation is projected to remain close to Bangladesh Bank’s 5.5 percent target, and the fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 6 percent of GDP. But risks to the outlook remain. 

A fragile global economic recovery could dampen demand for RMG products and limit job opportunities for migrant workers. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated financial sector risks stemming from nonperforming loans and weaknesses in bank governance and risk management. Improving logistics performance could help accelerate the recovery and improve competitiveness. The report outlines opportunities to modernize the logistics system to ensure business continuity and build resilience. This can be achieved through a system-wide strategy to increase logistics efficiency; improve the quality, capacity, and management of infrastructure; improve the quality and integration of logistics services; and, achieve a seamless integration of regional logistics services. 

WORLD BANK ADVICE ON RECOVERY

 “The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unpreceded global recession,” said Bernard Haven, World Bank Senior Economist, and co-author of the report. “Protecting households affected by the pandemic remains an urgent priority, while structural reforms can help accelerate the recovery.”

The Bangladesh Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Economic Focus, a bi-annual World Bank report that examines economic developments and prospects in the South Asia Region, and analyzes policy challenges faced by these countries. The Spring 2021 edition titled South Asia Vaccinates, launched in March 2021, shows that economic activity in South Asia is bouncing back, but growth is uneven, recovery remains fragile, and the economic outlook is precarious. Another World Bank report of April 13 2022 gives a hopeful picture. The report states that Bangladesh has made a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, but growth faces new headwinds as global commodity prices increase amid the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine.  

In Bangladesh, a rebound of manufacturing and service sector activities led strong growth in FY21 and in the first half of FY22. In the medium term, GDP growth is expected to remain strong. Headline inflation rose to 6.2 percent in February 2022, driven by a rise in both food and non-food prices. The war in Ukraine and associated sanctions may lead to a higher current account deficit and rising inflation as global commodity prices increase. Public debt remains sustainable, and the March 2022 joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assessed that Bangladesh remained at low risk of external and public debt distress.

“Following a strong economic recovery from the pandemic, estimated poverty declined to 11.9 percent in FY21 from 12.5 percent in FY20, as per the international poverty rate,” said Mercy Tembon, Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan. “Going forward, close monitoring of inflation and the potential impacts of the war in Ukraine will be important for the country’s sustainable and inclusive growth. The World Bank stands ready to help Bangladesh address structural reforms to support recovery and strengthen resilience to future shocks.” 

A WAY FORWARD FOR SOUTH ASIA

The Update is a companion piece to the latest South Asia Economic Focus-Reshaping Norms: A Way Forward which notes growth in South Asia, already uneven and fragile, will be slower than previously projected, mostly due to the impacts of the war in Ukraine. The report projects the region to grow by 6.6 percent in 2022 and by 6.3 percent in 2023. The 2022 forecast has been revised downward by 1.0 percentage point compared to the January projection.

Countries in South Asia are already grappling with rising commodity prices, supply bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities in financial sectors. The war in Ukraine will amplify these challenges, further contributing to inflation, and deteriorating current account balances.

“South Asia has faced multiple shocks in the past two years, including the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. High oil and food prices caused by the war in Ukraine will have a strong negative impact on peoples’ real incomes,”said Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Given these challenges, governments need to carefully plan monetary and fiscal policies to counter external shocks and protect the vulnerable, while laying the foundation for green, resilient and inclusive growth.”

The war and its impact on fuel prices can provide the region with much-needed impetus to reduce reliance on fuel imports and transition to a green, resilient and inclusive growth trajectory. The report recommends that countries steer away from inefficient fuel subsidies that tend to benefit wealthier households and deplete public resources. South Asian countries should also move towards a greener economy by gradually introducing taxation that puts tariffs on products which cause environmental damage.

“The introduction of green taxation can have multiple quantifiable benefits for South Asia, including improved energy security, environmental gains and increased fiscal revenues,” said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region. “These revenues could be utilized for adaptation against climate-related disasters and to strengthen social safety net systems.”

Another challenge the region faces is the disproportionate economic impact the pandemic has had on women. The report includes in-depth analysis of gender disparities in the region and their link with deeply rooted social norms, and recommends policies that will support women’s access to economic opportunities, tackle discriminatory norms, and improve gender outcomes for inclusive growth. This article demonstrates that the future for Bangladesh is not all bleak but rather flickering hopes of better days are to come.

I am conclude with a poem of Jalauddin Mohammed Rumi, more popularly known simply as Rumi (September 1207 – December 1273),  a 13th-century Persian poet, , theologian and Sufi mystic.  Rumi’s influence transcends national borders and ethnic divisions: including the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent.  

“I am so small I can barely be seen. How can this great love be inside me? Look at your eyes. They are small, but they see enormous things.“

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and ambassador of Bangladesh