The Emergence of a Multi-Polar World

By Kazi Anwarul Masud

Date : 27 Apr , 2023

According to Encyclopedia Britannica updated by J.E.Lubering in April 2023

35m Bangladeshis still live below the poverty line. Regular monitoring of progress is emphasized in recent Poverty Watch Report 2022 to assess the actual poverty line Bangladesh is among five countries where the world’s extremely poor reside.

US Outperforms Europe in the Economic Sphere

The Economist magazine in an article (13 April 2023) has lauded the impressive US economic performance compared to the other rich countries in the West. If GDP is taken as an example The Economist states “In 1990 America accounted for a quarter of the world’s output, at market exchange rates. Thirty years on, that share is almost unchanged, even as China has gained economic clout. America’s dominance of the rich world is startling. Today it accounts for 58% of the g7’s GDP, compared with 40% in 1990”. The magazine adds “For the world as a whole, America’s outperformance says much about how to grow. One lesson is that size matters. America has the benefit of a large consumer market over which to spread the costs of R&D and a deep capital market from which to raise finance. Only China, and perhaps one day India, can boast of purchasing power at such a scale”.

Disappearance of a Unipolar World

The very fact that China and India are cited as examples illustrates that the unipolar world that was accepted since the end of the Cold War no longer exists and the US has to take along NATO and the European Community members to take the challenge posed by China and the non-aligned Movement members of Indian sub-continent and African countries freed from British, Portuguese and other European nations.

Monro Doctrine and the Importance of the US Role

In this newly emerging situation, Monroe Doctrine played a crucial role in the US warning the European nations not to interfere in the American continent. Since the Spanish-American War, the United States had a significant hand in various conflicts around the world. The US surrounded by two oceans had the luxury of living in a separate world of its own and impose the Monroe Doctrine as it saw fit. Albeit Monroe Doctrine was a United States policy that opposed European colonialism in the Americas. It argued that any intervention in the politics of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the United States. The Monroe Doctrine was issued at a time when nearly all Latin American colonies of Spain and Portugal had achieved or were at the point of gaining, independence from the Portuguese and Spanish Empires. The Monroe Doctrine stated that further efforts by various European states to take control of any independent state in the Americas would be viewed as “the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States.” President James Monroe asserted that the New World and the Old World were to remain distinctly separate spheres of influence. A lot of water has flown under London Bridge and today’s world has a completely different shape.

Stephen Walt on the Disappearance of Unipolarity

Harvard Luminary Stephen Walt in an article observed former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s warning of the “undeniable danger” of U.S. unilateralism, and of former French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine’s statement that “the entire foreign policy of France is aimed at making the world of tomorrow composed of several poles, not just one.” Current French President Emmanuel Macron’s support for European unity and strategic autonomy reveals a similar impulse…Although the Biden administration recognizes that the US is back in a world of several great powers, it seems nostalgic for the brief era when the United States didn’t face peer competitors. Hence its vigorous reassertion of “U.S. leadership,” its desire to inflict a military defeat on Russia that will leave it too weak to cause trouble in the future, and its efforts to stifle China’s rise by restricting Beijing’s access to critical technological inputs”.

Sino-Russian Entente

Taking into consideration the picture drawn by Stephen Walt on the recent visit by Xi Jinping to Moscow (the 40th time the two leaders-Vladimir Putin- have met in person) is significant. The two leaders have publicly declared “limitless” solidarity and displayed the efficiency of the Western efforts to reach essential goods to the needy. It was to emphasize that the Communist system is superior to that of the West. As an example, China has launched its Belt and Road Initiative to construct infrastructural needs of the middle and poverty-stricken countries that do not have the resources to finance their needs.

Indo-Russian Relations

UN vote on the Russian invasion of Ukraine clearly displays that the motion was backed by 141 nations with 32 abstaining and seven, including Russia, voting against it. India reiterated its position on the invasion, saying that peaceful dialogue was the only way out. Delhi has increasingly faced pressure to take a clear stand on this war. Many countries, including the US and Ukraine, have publicly appealed to Delhi to “do the right thing”. But India has resisted the pressure and continued with its strategy of not criticizing Russia directly. It has abstained from similar resolutions both at the UNGA and at the UNSC in the past. The two countries have decades-old trusted relationships since the Cold War. Russia is also India’s largest arms supplier even though its share has dropped in recent years largely due to Delhi’s decision to boost domestic defense manufacturing and a widening imports portfolio. The two countries also have a history of diplomatic cooperation — Moscow has vetoed UNSC resolutions over the disputed region of Kashmir. Delhi, however, has talked about the importance of “the UN Charter, international law, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states” in its past statements on Ukraine.

Bangladesh Liberation War

One must recall the repeated vetoes given by the Soviet Union on efforts by Western nations in total disregard of the genocide perpetrated on unarmed Bengalis by the Pakistani military junta for a political solution with the Pakistani military regime. It was not for nothing that many countries from the East and the West realized, not for the first time, that the Western so-called cry for democracy was a farce.  US Senator Edward Kennedy visited the refugee camps in Indian West Bengal where millions of Bengalis were welcomed by then-Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi but for whose untiring efforts liberation of Bangladesh from the clutches of Pakistani hordes could have been indefinitely delayed. If we switch from 1971 when Bangladesh’s liberation was fought to the present time we find an entirely different world. US-European suzerainty is gone, multi-polarity has appeared and a Sino-Russian entente has emerged. As this article had indicated earlier the world would not like to have a saber-rattling contest between the US and Russia with nuclear weapons. The great majority of the people of the world would prefer a peaceful solution of the Ukraine problem that would ensure Russia her territorial integrity with Ukraine not joining either the Russian side or the Western side.

Bangladesh is an Example of Poverty and Corruption

According to a report published in Dhaka Tribune (Syed Zakir Hussain and Meraj Mavis-January 22 2023) After Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, 80% of its people initially lived below the poverty line, but now that percentage has reached 20%. However, the actual number of poor people has not decreased in this period, considering the percentage, a report revealed on Saturday. Still, 35 million people in Bangladesh live below the poverty line — a fact that came out in the Bangladesh Poverty Watch Report 2022. During the launching program of the report, experts and economists said that 35 million people remained poor since 1990 despite the poverty rate halving in the last three decades.They also urged the government to take and implement policies required for decentralization to uplift marginalized people above the poverty line, ensuring inclusive growth.

The report was jointly compiled by the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and the Centre for Inclusive Development Dialogue (CIDD). Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, chairman of InM and Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), in his opening remarks said: “Income-based poverty measurement will not eliminate the actual poverty. We have to find out about multidimensional poverty.” AtiurRahman, former governor of Bangladesh Bank, said that: “The economy is facing some challenges regarding geopolitical tension, energy shortage, and supply chain disruption, and the government should take steps considering these challenges.” Mustafa K Mujeri, chairman of the CIDD, said: “It’s true that poverty is in constant decline. The government has taken initiatives to solve this problem. But poverty is not only measured by ‘lack of income’, rather it includes the shortage of choice, opportunity, and lack of being heard.” Prof Salma Akhter, trustee of CIDD, in her keynote presentation, said that: “About 94% of the Garo males work as day laborers while the remaining are engaged with informal sectors.” All members of the community consider themselves poor throughout the year as men earn Tk300 a day, while women only Tk100.

Around 60,000 people from the Munda community face shortage of food for three to four months every year.The daily income of the Mal Paharia community varies from Tk100 to Tk200. About 92% of 129,000 Santals live below the poverty line. Most women and children in these groups face additional marginalization, and rights violations, and have fewer opportunities to access education, health, economic opportunities, protection and justice, Prof Salma added that the legal, administrative and other social institutions do not usually work equally to protect the rights of ethnic minorities and transgenders. Thus, their voices remain mostly unheard as the marginalized communities in Bangladesh are powerless and less organized than other citizens in claiming their civil rights.

Suggestions to Accelerate Social Integration

The report offered several key activities to accelerate their social integration. The key will be to integrate these policies into the government’s broader inclusive development strategies, which address cross-cutting and national-level issues such as strengthening inclusive growth, ensuring financial inclusion of the marginalized, reducing income and social inequality, accessing quality education, health, nutrition, and other basic services, adopting appropriate macroeconomic policy, addressing the marginal groups or regions, and implementing initiatives at the local level. Apart from the philosophies behind corruption, it would be useful to find out the causes of corruption in countries like Bangladesh. It is easy to give advice from armchairs on the ways to remove corruption from societies like ours. But in countries where millions of people are illiterate and have to depend on so-called literate persons to translate government orders which again would not be done without bribe millions of people remain at the mercy of middlemen to get service which in some cases are free entitlement to the recipients. So the nexus between corruption and receiving government services are clear. Corruption, therefore, has to be eliminated. But it is easier said than done. Corruption has taken such deep roots in our societies that it has become impossible to eliminate corruption. Additionally, when corruption has backers at a high level with powerful connections one has to keep quiet and suffer the indignities of becoming a victim. 35m Bangladeshis still live below the poverty line regular monitoring of progress emphasized in the recent

Poverty Watch Report 2022

Poverty Watch Report 2022 to assess actual poverty line Bangladesh is among five countries where the world’s extremely poor reside. According to a report published in Dhaka Tribune (Syed Zakir Hussain and Meraj Mavis-January 22 2023) After Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, 80% of its people initially lived below the poverty line, but now that percentage has reached 20%. However, the actual number of poor people has not decreased in this period, considering the percentage, a report revealed on Saturday. Still, 35 million people in Bangladesh live below the poverty line — a fact that came out in the Bangladesh Poverty Watch Report 2022. During the launching program of the report, experts and economists said that 35 million people remained poor since 1990 despite the poverty rate halving in the last three decades. They also urged the government to take and implement policies required for decentralization to uplift marginalized people above the poverty line, ensuring inclusive growth.

The report was jointly compiled by the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and the Centre for Inclusive Development Dialogue (CIDD). Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, chairman of InM and Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), in his opening remarks said: “Income-based poverty measurement will not eliminate the actual poverty. We have to find out about multidimensional poverty.” Atiur Rahmnan, former governor of Bangladesh Bank, said that: “The economy is facing some challenges regarding geopolitical tension, energy shortage and supply chain disruption, and the government should take steps considering these challenges.” Mustafa K Mujeri, chairman of the CIDD, said: “It’s true that poverty is in constant decline. The government has taken initiatives to solve this problem. But poverty is not only measured by ‘lack of income’, rather it includes the shortage of choice, opportunity, and lack of being heard.” Prof Salma Akhter, trustee of CIDD, said that: “About 94% of the Garo males work as day laborers while the remaining are engaged with informal sectors.” All members of the community consider themselves poor throughout the year as men earn Tk300 a day, while women only Tk100. Around 60,000 people from the Munda community face shortage of food for three to four months every year.

The daily income of the Mal Paharia community varies from Tk100 to Tk200. About 92% of 129,000 Santals live below the poverty line. Most women and children in these groups face additional marginalization, and rights violations, and have fewer opportunities to access education, health, economic opportunities, protection and justice, Prof Salma added. She further said the legal, administrative, and other social institutions do not usually work equally to protect the rights of ethnic minorities and transgenders. Thus, their voices remain mostly unheard as the marginalized communities in Bangladesh are powerless and less organized than other citizens in claiming their civil rights.

The report offered several key activities to accelerate their social integration. The key will be to integrate these policies into the government’s broader inclusive development strategies, which address cross-cutting and national-level issues such as strengthening inclusive growth, ensuring financial inclusion of the marginalized, reducing income and social inequality, accessing quality education, health, nutrition, and other basic services, adopting the appropriate macroeconomic policy, addressing the marginal groups or regions, and implementing initiatives at the local level.

Apart from the philosophies behind corruption, it would be useful to find out the causes of corruption in countries like Bangladesh. It is easy to give advice from armchairs on the ways to remove corruption from societies like ours. But in countries where millions of people are illiterate and have to depend on so-called literate persons to translate government orders which again would not be done without bribe millions of people remain at the mercy of middlemen to get service which in some cases are free entitlement to the recipients. So the nexus between corruption and receiving government services are clear. Corruption, therefore, has to be eliminated. But it is easier said than done. Corruption has taken such deep roots in our societies that it has become impossible to eliminate corruption. Additionally, when corruption has backers at a high level with powerful connections one has to keep quiet and suffer the indignities of becoming a victim.

 

Can the US and China go to War Over Taiwan Island?

Given the global demand for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict Russia saving its face and keeping its local base of supporters in check would be the best solution for both Taiwan and Ukraine’s problems.

BY KAZI ANWARUL MASUD

 

APRIL 15, 2023

 

5 MINS READ

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping holds a welcoming ceremony for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the square outside the east entrance of the Great Hall of the People prior to their talks in Beijing, capital of China, April 14, 2023. (Xinhua/Liu Weibing)

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Joshua Keating is a foreign policy analyst, staff writer, and author of the World blog at Slate, and a former writer and editor at Foreign Policy magazine in an article updated on January 2022 wrote that “war over Taiwan would likely involve the largest and most complex amphibious invasion ever mounted. Were the conflict to drag on, it might well evolve into a building-to-building, mountaintop-to-mountaintop ground war in one of the most densely populated and economically advanced countries on Earth. And that’s just in Taiwan itself”.  Such a venture is unlikely at the moment given the overwhelming desire of the world for peace and the cost involved in the venture for China.

EMERGENCE OF NON-ALIGNMENT

Even if “ no limits” Sino-Russian entente against the US hegemonic policy which has ruled the world since the end of the Second World War, albeit to the advantage of the Western bloc, e.g. US supremacy in the World Bank and European supremacy in European Banks the world has been content with this rule-based arrangement till the British ruled the waves. With the disappearance of British-ruled India and African nations, another strand of policy e.g. non-alignment rose to its head led by Pandit Nehru in India, Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana, Sukarno in Indonesia, Joseph Broz Tito of Yugoslavia and  Gamal Abdul Nasser of United Arab Republic. The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) is a forum of 120 countries that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc. After the United Nations, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide the movement originated in the aftermath of the Korean War, as an effort by some countries to counterbalance the rapid bi-polarization of the world during the Cold War, whereby two major powers formed blocs and embarked on a policy to pull the rest of the world into their orbits. Indonesian President Sukarno the first Conference of Heads of State or Government of non-aligned countries. The purpose of the organization to ensure “the national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of non-aligned countries” in their “struggle against imperialism, colonialism, neo-colonialism racism, and all forms of foreign aggression, occupation, domination, interference or hegemony as well as against great powers politics.” The countries of the Non-Aligned Movement represent nearly two-thirds of the United Nations’ members and contain 55% of the world population. Membership is particularly concentrated in countries considered to be developing or part of the Third World, although the Non-Aligned Movement also has a number of developed nations. (WIKIPEDIA).

CHINA’S DESIRE TO TAKE BACK TAIWAN

Joshua Keating adds “China’s desire to retake Taiwan goes back decades While still far from inevitable, this nightmare scenario has never seemed more likely. Beijing has sought control of Taiwan, which it considers a wayward province, ever since 1949, when fleeing Chinese nationalist forces set up a government on the island. China unsuccessfully attempted military force against Taiwan in the 1950s and 1990s. For much of that period, Taiwan itself had a superior military to the People’s Republic, and U.S. naval dominance in the region was unquestioned. But in recent years, the balance of power has shifted dramatically, thanks to China’s economic rise and one of the largest and fastest military buildups in history. Until a few years ago, most experts believed China had little chance of successfully taking Taiwan in the face of U.S. opposition. Now, as another analyst has put it, the U.S. regularly “gets its ass handed to it” in Pentagon war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Lately, Chinese leaders have shown signs that they are running out of patience.

 XI-JINPING OBSESSION ABOUT TAIWAN  

On more than one occasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the Taiwan issue should not be “passed on from generation to generation.” More recently, he emphasized: “The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled and will definitely be fulfilled.”  The outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, Adm. Phil Davidson, suggested in congressional testimony in March 2021 that China is likely to move on Taiwan “in the next six years.”  Besides a Chinese landing on Taiwan would “be the most complex operation in modern military history,” said Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies U.S.-China competition.  

SHOULD XI JINPING’S RECENT UTTERINGS BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY

 Despite Xi-Jinping’s bravado, it is up in the air what his intention is likely to be. Biden administration has not made clear its intention of the mode of support to Taiwan. Taiwan has been one of the invitees to Joe Biden’s Democracy Summit which has enraged Beijing. Adding insult to injury had been visits to Taiwan by past and present Presidents of US Congress.

STEPHEN WALT ON CLOSE CO-OPERATION IN WESTER BLOC

Harvard Luminary Stephen Walt wrote in an article argued that NATO must be sustained because of four major areas in which close cooperation is beneficial to European and American interests. Defeating international terrorism; Walt saw a need for cooperation between Europe and the United States in managing terrorist networks and stopping the flow of money to terror cells. Limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction; Walt argued that anti-proliferation efforts are most successful when Europe and the U.S. work in concert to bring loose nuclear material into responsible custody. Managing the world economy; lowering barriers to trade and investment particularly between the U.S. and the E.U. would accelerate economic growth. Notable differences in trade policy stem mainly in areas of agricultural policy. Dealing with failed states; failed states are breeding grounds for anti-Western movements. Managing failed states such as Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Somalia require a multinational response since the U.S. has insufficient wealth to modernize and rebuild these alone. In this area, European allies are especially desirable because they have more experience with peacekeeping and “nation-building”.  In 2015, Walt wrote that extending invitations for NATO membership to countries in the former Soviet bloc is a “dangerous and unnecessary goal” and that nations such as Ukraine ought to be “neutral buffer state(s) in perpetuity.”   From that perspective, he believed that arming Ukrainian armed forces after the annexation of the Crimea by Russia “is a recipe for a longer and more destructive conflict.”

 ANALYSTS TAKE A DIFFERENT VIEW

 On the other hand, Alexander Gabuev ( Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) has taken serious note of the recent utterings of XI-Jinping when he wrote in April 2023 that ““There are changes happening, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping said to Russian President Vladimir Putin last month at the end of a state visit to Russia. “Let’s drive those changes together.” To this, the Russian leader responded, “I agree.” This seemingly improvised yet carefully choreographed scene captured the outcome of Xi’s trip to Russia and the trajectory on which he and Putin have set Sino-Russian relations. Xi’s visit last month was first and foremost a demonstration of public support for the embattled Russian leader. But the truly significant developments took place during closed-door, in-person discussions, at which Xi and Putin made a number of important decisions about the future of Chinese-Russian defense cooperation and likely came to terms on arms deals that they may or may not make public. The war in Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions on Russia are reducing the Kremlin’s options and pushing Russia’s economic and technological dependence on China to unprecedented levels. These changes give China a growing amount of leverage over Russia. At the same time, China’s fraying relationship with the United States makes Moscow an indispensable junior partner to Beijing in pushing back against the United States and its allies. China has no other friend that brings as much to the table. And as Xi prepares China for a period of prolonged confrontation with the most powerful country on the planet, he needs all the help he can get.”  Whether these utterings of Xi-Jinping are a preparation for war on Taiwan only time can tell.  Given the global demand for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict Russia saving its face and keeping its local base of supporters in check would be the best solution for both Taiwan and Ukraine’s problems.

 

Is Conflict Between US And China Inevitable? – OpEd

 April 7, 2023  Eurasia Review  2 Comments

By Ambassador Kazi Anwarul Masud

Rise of China as a rich country

History teaches us that when a country becomes rich, as China has become the richest country in the world, China has beat the U.S. to become the world’s richest nation.

According to a new report Key Findings Global net worth soared from $156 million in 2000 to $514 trillion in 2020, making the world wealthier than it was at any point in history. China accounted for nearly a third of the increase, the report from management consultancy firm McKinsey & Company stated. McKinsey analyzed the national balance sheets of 10 countries that represented 60% of the world’s income.

Of these nations, China accounted for 50% of the growth in net worth, followed by the U.S. (22%) and Japan (11%). The report found that China’s wealth rose from $7 trillion in 2000 to $120 trillion in 2020. The U.S., on the other hand, saw its wealth more than double to $90 trillion in the same period.  Albeit China has become rich yet it is miles behind the US and has a lot to catch up. 

Core reasons of the US-China conflict

The question of tension and possible conflict between the US and China is not due to differences in wealth but due to Chinese determination to believe in umbilical ties with Taiwan. Should a conflict arise between the two powers the end game is a matter of guessing. Visits by the former US Congress leader and her successor to Taiwan have raged Beijing to an indeterminate conclusion. 

The New York Times report by Joshua Keating of January 2022 has extensively quoted Ben Rhodes then White House deputy national security adviser of President Barak Obama in his new book, After the Fall: writes Being American in the World does not read like the work of someone overly concerned about a future confirmation hearing. His second book since leaving Government is a dark, often angry, and surprisingly personal tour of a world where authoritarianism is on the rise and American influence on the wane. When he was in government, Rhodes referred to Washington’s hawkish bipartisan foreign policy establishment—the caucus of politicians, think tankers, and media figures who have never met a problem that can’t be solved by a more assertive American role. After the Fall sees an America whose influence and example had been hollowed out years before Donald Trump rose to the presidency, by the war on terror and the 2008 financial crisis. 

Decline of US Power

To Rhodes, the U.S. has a become nation that increasingly plays little role at all, ceding the field to other powers clawing their way up to the superpower table where they would be able to cut a piece of the pie that all superpowers aspire for.

To China, Taiwan is a part and parcel of the Chinese mainland which Chiang Kai Shek after being driven out by Mao Tse Tung set up an independent state named Taiwan which was later recognized as a part of mainland China by the US. Taiwan, however, continues to be a democratic entity recognized by the US, proof if any proof is needed has been invited to Taiwan by the US in the US President’s invitation to democracy-practicing nations of the world. That the international community does not want tension in the world is obvious. 

The current visit by the French President to China is an indication. In China: President Emmanuel Macron of France traveled to Beijing to “relaunch” a strategic partnership between Europe and China. He also plans to urge Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to play a “major role” in bringing peace to Ukraine.

Macron, who will meet with Xi is determined to carve out a more conciliatory position toward China than the American one and to convince Xi to speak with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. If the French leader can exploit the daylight between China and Russia over Russia’s war in Ukraine — which appears unlikely given the two countries’ declaration of a “no-limits” friendship — he will have achieved something that is broadly in America’s strategic interest: a faster end to the war and a weakening of the Chinese-Russian bond.

“So far, both Russia and the United States have initiated self-destructive wars: Russia in Ukraine and the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. As for China, its obsession with the conquest of Taiwan could lead to self-destruction. 

Thucidydes Trap

All three great powers have in recent years and decades clearly demonstrated bouts of uncommonly bad judgment when it comes to their long-term survival. Were any or all of today’s great powers to dramatically weaken, confusion and disorder would increase inside their borders and around the world. A weakened or embattled United States would be less able to support its allies in Europe and Asia. Were the Kremlin’s regime to wobble because of factors stemming from the Ukraine war, Russia, which is institutionally weaker than China, could become a low-calorie version of the former Yugoslavia, unable to control its historic territories in the Caucasus, Siberia, and East Asia.

Economic or political turmoil in China could unleash regional unrest within the country and also embolden India and North Korea, whose policies are inherently constrained by Beijing.”( Downside of Imperial Collapse- Robert D Kaplan-Foreign Affairs-October 2022). Chances of the US and China falling into the Thucydides Trap over Taiwan between the US and China is remote despite the Sino-Russian entente without “limits”. The communist countries appeal to reach the needy more quickly than the democracy-loving countries may lose their appeal once the freedom to act disappears. Ethiopia is an example where the leaders were blunt to say that Chinese language institutes would be shut down if the needed goods do not reach the needy. Given the international desire for peace, despite Ukraine tension and the US and China tussle, peace under the present circumstances is expected to remain.