Friday, April 26, 2024

 

Does The Islamic World Have Any Responsibility Towards the Palestinian People?

It is well known that Benjamin Netanyahu reacted sharply by canceling the visit of an Israeli delegation’s visit to the US incensed by the US abstention of voting in the United Nations which Netanyahu had expected that the US would exercise its veto.

  
11 mins read
 
People line up to get free food in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, on March 18, 2024. (Photo by Rizek Abdeljawad/Xinhua)

Did Adolf Hitler Have a Blueprint for the Extermination of Jews in the Potsdam Conference?

Is it because Harry Truman not only recognized Israel as an independent country and as such gave cover to Israeli airspace during the short war with Egypt when Anwar Sadat could have given a death blow to Israel but for the US cover of Israeli airspace? Lawrence Rees, historian, and author, in his newest book published in March 2024 titled The Holocaust, wrote that “The fundamental precondition for the Holocaust happening was Adolf Hitler,” he explained that “Even as far back as 1921, Hitler said that solving the Jewish question was a central question for National Socialism.

Historian Lawrence Rees and His Book Published in 2024

And you can only solve it by using brute force.” Hitler had no blueprint for the Holocaust at that point, says Rees. But he did have a pathological problem with Jews. “Hitler believed that something needed to be done,” Rees explains, “and that evolved and changed according to circumstances and political opportunism.

An intriguing part of Rees’s book is his determination to figure out when the collective set of initiatives we now call the Final Solution became official Nazi policy. It’s a question that doesn’t come with a straightforward answer, Rees maintained. What is clear, though, is that in the summer of 1940, there was still no concrete plan in place for the extermination of Jews. Furthermore, up until that point, Rees argued, the Nazis were still clinging to the belief that in the long term, the way to solve what they called “the Jewish question” was by expulsion and hard labor. At that point, mass murder was still not the preferred option.

By the summer of 1942, however, a sea change had taken place. By that time, the Holocaust was in full swing. Therefore, within the previous two-year period, Rees points out, there were several milestones on the road towards mass extermination. But trying to pinpoint an exact moment where the decision was taken to commit to mass killing is very difficult, says Rees — especially since much of the planning was done in secret without written records.

Hitherto, many historians, filmmakers, and writers have pointed to a single meeting where plans for the Holocaust were finally decided upon in the power structures of Nazi officialdom. This was known as the Wannsee Conference. It was held in the Berlin suburb of Wannsee in January of 1942 and involved several mid-ranking Nazi officials devising a plot to murder Jews over a shorter timescale and in more efficient ways. But even then, Rees says, no final plans were resolved at the infamous conference. He also points out that key figures from the upper tiers of the Nazi hierarchy — Himmler, Goebbels, and Hitler himself — were not present.

“I cannot see how there can have been a decision in 1941,” said Rees. ‘By that stage, you can say a decision to implement what we would now call the Holocaust had been decided upon. The moment of no return for the Holocaust, said the historian, was in the spring and early summer of 1942 when a decision was taken to kill all of the Jews in the General Government in Poland — a German-occupied zone established by Hitler after the joint invasion by the Germans and Soviets in 1939.“By that stage, you can say a decision to implement what we would now call the Holocaust had been made,” said Rees.

Hungary was beautiful to the Nazis, given the number of Jews that resided there. The Jews were transported to Auschwitz between May and July of 1944, where they were murdered. This plan for cold-blooded murder was deviously orchestrated by Adolf Eichmann, who at the time was stationed in Budapest.

Adolf Eichmann and Hannah Arendt

In April 2024 issue wrote on American scholar Hannah Arendt who published a series of articles that became one of the most controversial books of the 20th century: Hannah Arendt’s Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil. The articles dealt with the trial of Adolf Eichmann, the Nazi SS officer who coordinated the logistics of transporting millions of European Jews to their death during World War II.

Arendt portrayed Eichmann and other Nazi criminals not as hate-filled, anti-Semitic monsters but as petty bureaucrats and spoke openly about the role played by Jewish councils in the deportation and destruction of their own people. Arendt’s central insight into what she called “the banality of evil”—that great crimes can arise from mindless conformity and thoughtlessness about the humanity of others—came paired with sharp criticism of Israeli insensitivity to legitimate Palestinian claims and disregard for the rights of minorities and neighbors.

Arendt suffered ferocious personal attacks that continue today, 37 years after her death. Criticism of her Eichmann book inevitably incorporates some variant of the assertion that she felt herself to be more German than Jewish and was a self-hating, anti-Semitic Jew—a strange charge against a woman who worked on behalf of Jewish organizations most of her life.

The 50-year battle over Arendt’s reputation has pitted her defenders against those who would deflect her criticism of Israel as anti-Jewish, thus turning people away from her ideas about democratic pluralism and regional cooperation without having to discuss them. Soon after the Eichmann pieces began to appear, civil rights activist Henry Schwarzschild warned Arendt that Jewish organizations in New York were furiously planning a campaign against her and that she should expect to be the object of great debate and animosity.

Siegfried Moses, a friend from Arendt’s youth who had immigrated to Israel and risen to the position of state comptroller, sent a note to Arendt on behalf of the Council of Jews from Germany, declaring war on her and her Eichmann book. Moses then flew to Switzerland to meet with Arendt and demanded that she stop the book’s publication. She refused, warning him that the intensity of criticism was “going to make the book into a cause célèbre and thus embarrass the Jewish community far beyond anything that she had said or could possibly do.” Indeed, literary critic Irving Howe would describe the vitriolic public dispute that ensued as “violent,” while novelist Mary McCarthy would liken it to a pogrom. It began on March 11 with a memorandum distributed by the Anti-Defamation League alerting its members to “Arendt’s defamatory conception of Jewish participation in the Nazi Holocaust,” by which they meant her reporting that evidence at the trial showed that leaders of Jewish communities across Europe had negotiated the orderly demise of their communities with Eichmann.

The ADL followed up with a pamphlet, “Arendt Nonsense,” which called the Eichmann articles evil, glib, and trite. On May 19, 1963, The New York Times published a highly critical review of Eichmann in Jerusalem by Michael A. Musmanno, a retired Navy rear admiral who had served as a judge at the U.S. Nuremberg Military Tribunals and was then a sitting justice on Pennsylvania’s supreme court. Musmanno had also appeared as a witness for the prosecution at the Eichmann trial. In her book Arendt had disparaged Musmanno’s testimony that Nazi foreign minister Joachim von Ribbentrop told him at Nuremberg that Hitler’s madness had come about because he had fallen under Eichmann’s influence. Even the prosecution knew this was a fabrication. Musmanno wrote in the Times that Arendt was motivated by “purely private prejudice. She attacks the State of Israel, its laws and institutions, wholly unrelated to the Eichmann case.”

That summer New York intellectuals weighed in. A review by playwright and critic Lionel Abel in Partisan Review accused Arendt of having portrayed the Nazis as more aesthetically appealing than their victims. Journalist Norman Podhoretz’s review in Commentary concluded that Arendt had exemplified “intellectual perversity [resulting] from the pursuit of brilliance by a mind infatuated with its own agility and bent on generating dazzle.” Zionist activist Marie Syrkin wrote in Dissent that Eichmann was the only character who came out better in the book than he went in and accused Arendt of manipulating the facts with “high-handed assurance.” Arendt had published often in all three journals. More measured criticism came in a letter from Gershom Scholem, a friend from Arendt’s youth and then a professor of Jewish mysticism at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He affirmed his “deep respect” for Arendt but characterized the tone of her book as “heartless,” “flippant,” “sneering and malicious,” replacing balanced judgment with a “demagogic will-to-overstatement.”

He could never think of her, he wrote, as anything other than “a daughter of our people” but admonished her for insufficient love of the Jewish people: “In you, dear Hannah, as in so many intellectuals who come from the German Left, I find little trace of this.” Arendt replied that she came not from the German Left but from the tradition of German philosophy and that of course she was a daughter of the Jewish people and had never claimed to be anything else. In the full flush of the attack, Mary McCarthy stepped forward as Arendt’s champion. Writing in the Winter 1964 issue of Partisan Review, she observed that the hostile reviews and personal attacks on Arendt were written almost entirely by Jews. She dismissed Lionel Abel’s assertion that Arendt made Eichmann aesthetically palatable: “Reading her book, he liked Eichmann better than the Jews who died in the crematoriums. Each to his own taste. It was not my impression.” Marie Syrkin accused McCarthy of intellectual irresponsibility and ignorance, and writer and historian Harold Weisberg characterized her defense of Arendt as wholly lacking in charity and logic.

At the height of the scandal, however, Hannah Arendt was assured that she would emerge with her reputation intact: any fair-minded person who read the Eichmann book would see her seriousness of purpose, honesty, fundamental goodness, and passion for justice. “A time will come that you will not live to see, when Jews will erect a monument to you in Israel, as they are doing now for Spinoza,” he wrote. “They will proudly claim you as their own.” Now, as the debate began to subside, Jaspers wrote that though she had suffered greatly, the critical uproar was adding to her prestige. Arendt wrote back that she had been warmly received by the mostly Jewish students who had turned out in substantial numbers for her lectures on politics at Yale, Columbia, Chicago, and other universities. “The funny thing,” she told people that after speaking her mind openly she was once again “flooded with invitations from all the Jewish organizations to speak, to appear at congresses, etc. And some of these invitations are coming from organizations that I singled out to attack and named by name.”

In the next few years she would collect a dozen honorary degrees from American universities and be inducted into both the National Institute of Arts and Letters and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, which awarded her its Emerson-Thoreau Medal for distinguished achievement in literature. For a long moment, which lasted another quarter-century after her death in 1975, Arendt had beaten back her detractors, with her reputation intact. New Yorker editor William Shawn wrote that Arendt’s death had removed “some counterweight to all the world’s unreason and corruption,” that she had been “a moral and intellectual force that went beyond category,” and that her influence “on intellectuals, artists, and political people around the world was profound.”

The Request Made to the US by King Abdullah of Jordan, Emanuel Macron of France, and Abdullah Sisi of Egypt to the United States

The world cannot and should not ignore the resounding words of King Abdullah of Jordan. Emanuel Macron of France and Abdullah Sisi of Egypt. In plain words these eminent people said, and I quote The U.S. can’t afford to wait to fully embrace the world’s most effective weapon. As we urge all parties to abide by all relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions, we warn against the dangerous consequences of an Israeli offensive on Rafah, where about 1.5 million Palestinian civilians have sought refuge. Such an offensive would only bring more death and suffering, heighten the risks and consequences of mass displacement of the people of Gaza and threaten regional escalation.

We reiterate our equal respect for all lives. We condemn all violations and abuses of international humanitarian law, including all acts of violence, terrorism and indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Protecting civilians is a fundamental legal obligation for all parties and the cornerstone of international humanitarian law. Violating this obligation is absolutely prohibited. Palestinians in Gaza are no longer facing only a risk of famine, but famine is already setting in. There is an urgent need for a massive increase in the provision and distribution of humanitarian assistance. This is a core demand of U.N. Security Council Resolutions 2720 and 2728, which emphasize the urgent need to expand aid supplies. U.N. agencies, including the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, and humanitarian actors play a critical role in relief operations in Gaza. They must be protected and granted full access, including in the northern part of the Gaza Strip. We condemn the killing of humanitarian aid workers, most recently the attack against World Central Kitchen’s aid convoy.

Consistent with international law, Israel is under an obligation to ensure the flow of humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian population, a responsibility it has not fulfilled. We reiterate the Security Council’s demand to lift barriers to humanitarian assistance and for Israel to immediately facilitate humanitarian assistance through all crossing points, including in the North of the Gaza Strip and through a direct land corridor from Jordan, as well as by sea. We, the leaders of Egypt, France, and Jordan, are determined to continue stepping up our efforts to meet the humanitarian, medical and health needs of the civilian population of Gaza, in close coordination with the U.N. system and regional partners. Lastly, we underline the urgency of restoring hope for peace and security for all in the region, primarily the Palestinian and Israeli people.

We emphasize our determination to continue working together to avoid further regional spillover, and we call on all actors to refrain from any escalatory action. We urge an end to all unilateral measures, including settlement activity and land confiscation. We also urge Israel to prevent settler violence. We emphasize the necessity of respecting the historical and legal status quo at Jerusalem’s Muslim and Christian holy sites, and the role of the Jordanian Waqf under the Hashemite custodianship. We stress our determination to step up our joint efforts to effectively bring about the two-state solution.

The establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state on the basis of the two-state solution, in accordance with international law and relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions, to live side by side in peace and security with Israel, is the only way to achieve true peace. The Security Council must play a role in decisively reopening this horizon for peace.

Conclusion

It is well known that Benjamin Netanyahu reacted sharply by canceling the visit of an Israeli delegation’s visit to the US incensed by the US abstention of voting in the United Nations which Netanyahu had expected that the US would exercise its veto. How far it will affect Israel-US relations remains to be seen. One, however has to remind oneself the harsh criticism by the US House majority leader, himself a Jew and the first time a Jew has been elected to the post, that Israel should go for a fresh election to choose a leader, preferably in the place of Netanyahu and his right-wing colleagues who are beating the drum of war in the name of extermination of Hamas regardless of the cost to the US-Israeli relations and also an improbable return of Donald Trump and his demand that the Europeans should pay for the protection being provided by the US ever since the US, tilted so-called “rules based” world, more often broken than honored by the US for fifty years. Indubitably, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had broken international law providing sovereignty of countries to rule their territories according to their rules and regulations. But the question the world may keep on asking, now that Saddam Hussein is long gone, whether the US itself is not guilty of breaking international law.

Sunday, April 21, 2024

 

Pakistan’s Role in India’s Elections

Indian ministers accuse Pakistan of terrorism, hinting at potential military action, leveraging ambiguity for political gain

  
4 mins read
 1 
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to his supporters as he arrives to attend a rally in Guwahati, India, February 4, 2024. [ Photo: REUTERS/Anuwar Hazarika/File Photo]

INDIA’S ROLE IN EXTRA-JUDICIAL KILLINGS

Recently the Guardian reported on allegations that India’s government had orchestrated as many as 20 extrajudicial killings in Pakistan since 2020, targeting suspected terrorists. The allegations may give ammunition to critics abroad concerned about signals of India’s increasing willingness to resort to carrying out assassinations overseas, following developments in Canada and the United States last year. But at home, with national elections set to begin next week, the Guardian report will provide a boost to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It validates the ruling party’s boasts about taking a tough line on Pakistan, which play well politically in India.

DOES PAKISTAN AID ANTI-INDIAN MILITANT GROUPS?

The report also validates long-standing claims by India, as well as the United States, that Pakistan sponsors or at least gives free rein to militant groups within its borders. In February 2019, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a Pakistan-based terrorist group, attacked a military convoy in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing 40 soldiers. India retaliated with airstrikes against what it said were terrorist bases in Pakistan. The crisis became a dominant theme during India’s elections that year. The BJP slammed Pakistan and accused the political opposition of helping Islamabad by demanding proof that the Indian strikes hit their stated targets.

PAKISTAN’S ANTI-INDIAN ATTITUDE HELPED NARENDRA MODI TO WIN ELECTION.

The BJP handily won the 2019 vote, and India has since maintained a hard line against its neighbor and rival. Its decision to revoke the special autonomous status of Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 was excoriated by Pakistan. Despite a 2021 border truce, Modi has largely refused to engage with Islamabad during his second term. And India has conditioned formal dialogue on Pakistan taking action against terrorists on its soil who target India. Unsurprisingly, BJP leaders have returned to the 2019 crisis on the campaign trail this year. This week, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath declared that Pakistan is “frightened” because “they know that the new India … storms into their country through airstrikes and kills terrorists.” Tellingly, India has said little about the Guardian report. Local media have quoted the External Affairs Ministry saying that allegations of extrajudicial killings are “false and malicious anti-India propaganda,” only repeating previous statements. But when questioned directly about the latest allegations, senior Indian officials have not denied them.

This week, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke of Western media bias and blamed Pakistan for harboring terrorists. But Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said that if “terrorists run away to Pakistan, we will enter Pakistan to kill them.” This ambiguous response will likely reap political benefits. It encourages voters to respond to the allegations in one of two ways: to reject them as Western propaganda against the BJP or to accept them as proof of the ruling party’s muscular tactics against Pakistani threats. The Guardian report helps the BJP politically in other ways.

First, it counters criticism—often voiced by the opposition—that India’s strength abroad is compromised by its struggle to counter growing Chinese threats, from border incursions to naval power projection. Some Modi critics may also applaud India taking out terrorists in Pakistan; counterterrorism is a decidedly less divisive issue among the electorate than the BJP’s Hindu nationalism. Given his popularity and the weak and divided opposition, Modi is poised to win a third straight term this year and doesn’t seem to need another political gift. Still, anything helps, and the BJP can exploit the latest report to back up its claims of acting with strength abroad to advance its security interests and to showcase its tough stance against Pakistan. Her Power 2024 is here! On April 18th explore how economic empowerment for women is economic empowerment for the world.

PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER VISITS SAUDI ARABIA

Recently Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Saudi Arabia, marking his first overseas trip since returning to power in March. Saudi Arabia is one of Pakistan’s closest allies, although the relationship hasn’t always been easy. In 2020, the two sides sparred over Riyadh’s position on the Kashmir dispute, and India’s growing ties with Saudi Arabia pose a challenge as well. But currently, ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are warm, and Sharif’s trip went well. The visit yielded a significant commitment to expedite a $5 billion investment package to Pakistan. Islamabad’s Special Investment Facilitation Council has prioritized securing funding from the Arab Gulf states, which will be a major focus of the Sharif era: Both he and his brother, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, have close personal ties to Saudi Arabia. The Pakistani economy has recently stabilized a bit. Although inflation remains high, it has come down in recent months, and an International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal last year gave the economy some breathing room. Additional IMF funds will likely be released in the coming weeks. But debt remains high, and Pakistan’s currency continues to perform poorly—making Saudi funding even more important. Indian court rejects opposition appeal.

ARVIND KEJIWAL’S APPEAL REJECTED BY DELHI HIGH COURT

 Delhi High Court rejected an appeal against the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and an opposition leader with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which governs nearby Punjab as well. Kejriwal was detained last month on corruption charges, which the AAP and other opposition groups have rejected. The court said Kejriwal’s arrest “cannot be termed as illegal.” In a separate ruling last week, Kejriwal was ordered to be kept in jail until April 15, four days before India’s elections begin. The AAP, which has two other top leaders detained on similar charges, reacted angrily to Tuesday’s news and has vowed to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, India’s largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress, is dealing with its own travails, including heavy penalties for tax violations, which the party has rejected as a state attempt to weaken its finances before the elections. These moves, which critics say undermine India’s electoral playing field, are unlikely to hurt Modi at the polls.

Monday, April 15, 2024

 

President Putin’s Red Line of Warning to The Western Powers

Russia is seeking longer-term security guarantees from the Alliance that Ukraine will not be admitted as a Member State and that NATO military infrastructure will not be deployed in the country.

  
7 mins read
 
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands as they arrive for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021. [File Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]

President Putin seldom appeared in public since the pandemic began. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West not to cross a “red line” with Russia, saying such a move would trigger an “asymmetrical, rapid, and harsh” response. The warning came in his annual state of the nation address, amid heightened tension with the West over Ukraine and jailed Putin critic Alexei Navalny. President Putin said Western powers were constantly trying to “pick on” Russia. Police have detained nearly 100 Navalny supporters rallying in several cities.

Hundreds staged pro-Navalny protests on Wednesday in eastern cities including Vladivostok, Irkutsk, and Krasnoyarsk. The authorities have declared them illegal. The anti-corruption campaigner is being treated at a prison hospital in Vladimir, about 180 km (112 miles) east of Moscow. He is on hunger strike, and his allies say his life is in danger. In central Moscow, police cordoned off the area around Manezh exhibition hall, where Putin addressed both houses of parliament. Navalny supporters planned to rally in the area. “No to war, repression, and torture”: A pro-Navalny march in Vladivostok. Two close aides to Navalny were among those detained.

BELARUS ‘COUP PLOT’

Putin focused most of his speech on Russia’s battle against Covid-19 and its plans to improve welfare and economic development. But he accused the West of threatening stability in Russia and its ex-Soviet neighbors Belarus and Ukraine. “The use of unjust sanctions is growing into something more dangerous: a coup attempt in Belarus,” he said. He backs Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who faces huge opposition since claiming re-election last year, in a vote widely condemned as rigged. The two Presidents held talks in Moscow. Later Belarusian authorities announced that they had foiled a US-backed plot to assassinate President Lukashenko. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said it had detained two Belarusians allegedly involved in the plot. The coup claim was dismissed by the exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as a “provocation”. Since last August’s disputed election, massive demonstrations in support of her have taken place, with thousands of protesters beaten up by police and detained.

WARNING TO WEST

President Putin said some Western countries were like jackals trying to please the US, just as a jackal behaves with the tiger Shere Khan in Kipling’s tale The Jungle Book. “We don’t want to burn bridges, but if somebody interprets our good intentions as weakness, our reaction will be asymmetrical, rapid, and harsh,” he said. “We’ll decide for ourselves in each case where the red line is.” Media caption, Gauging the Russian mood: BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg traveled to the city of Krasnoyarsk in Siberia to report tensions building over Ukraine. Russia backs the separatists holding a swathe of eastern Ukraine, and its maneuvers have fueled fears of a new Russian military intervention.

In his speech, President Putin said that “the West didn’t think about Belarus or Ukraine when the Maidan events were going on there”. Mass protests in Kyiv’s Maidan Square led to Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych fleeing to Russia in February 2014. “The organizers of any provocations against Russia will regret their actions in a way they never have before,” Vladimir Putin warned. His spokesman later described the “red lines” as “our external security interests, our internal security interests in preventing any outside interference, whether in our elections or other domestic political processes”. Last week the US government accused the Kremlin of “malign activity” and expelled 10 Russian diplomats. Russia responded tit-for-tat. Similar hostile exchanges of diplomats took place between Russia and both the Czech Republic and Poland.

HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY RUSSIA’S RED LINE

In early November 2021, Russia began building up its military forces along the borders of Ukraine, for the second time in a year. Over 100,000 Russian military personnel and assets have been deployed in Crimea and in the Voronezh, Kursk, and Bryansk regions of Western Russia. Russian naval assets from the Baltic and Northern fleets have deployed to the Black Sea, and 30,000 Russian troops are currently on exercise in Belarus, close to the Ukrainian border. Tensions have escalated following a US intelligence assessment in December 2021, which suggested that Russia could be planning an invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Russia’s “red lines” Russia has denied suggestions that it is planning to invade and has linked its actions to what it regards as provocative actions by NATO.

Russia is seeking longer-term security guarantees from the Alliance that Ukraine will not be admitted as a Member State and that NATO military infrastructure will not be deployed in the country. The Kremlin has said these are “red lines” for Russia’s national security. International response Western nations have made clear their support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and its right to choose its security partnerships. They have warned Russia that any military escalation will have significant economic consequences.

Among the measures being discussed are sanctions against Russia’s financial institutions, energy sector, and individuals close to the Kremlin. Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe could be halted as part of any sanctions package. Military assistance from the UK, US, NATO, and the EU is also being provided to Ukraine. Diplomatic talks Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation are underway. A series of meetings between the US, NATO, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Russia were held in mid-January. Those Commons Library Research Briefing, 18 February 2022 4 Ukraine: Russia’s “red line” meetings discussed Ukraine, but also European security more broadly, including Russian proposals for legally binding security guarantees between the US, NATO, and Russia. Talks aimed at achieving a political solution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine also resumed between the countries of the Normandy Format: Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany. No breakthroughs were achieved, and Russia did not commit to de-escalate and withdraw forces from the Ukrainian border. What happens next?

Russia has since been accused by the West of planning a series of aggressive moves against Ukraine as a pretext for military action, allegations which it denies. Russia stands by its statement that it has no plans to invade Ukraine and President Putin has accused the US of trying to draw Russia into a war. In mid-February the Russian Ministry of Defense said that several units had begun to withdraw from the region back to their permanent locations, having completed their exercises. NATO said it had not seen any signs of de-escalation on the ground, thus far. In the meantime, shelling between pro-Russian separatist forces and Ukrainian government forces in eastern Ukraine has increased.

Diplomacy continues with several world leaders having visited Moscow for talks in recent weeks. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether the Kremlin will agree to NATO’s proposal for more substantive security talks in the longer term. A Russian response to the US’s counter-proposals on legally binding security guarantees was received by the US administration on 17 February and is currently being considered. On 14 February 2022, however, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “I think our opportunities are far from exhausted. Of course, they should not be endless, but I think we should still continue to pursue and build on them at this point”. Deterrence as well as diplomacy In the meantime, NATO allies have moved to shore up the defense of Eastern Europe with the deployment of additional ships and fighter aircraft to the region. Further consideration is being given to the deployment of additional battlegroups in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe.

NATO forces will not be deployed on the ground, however, as Ukraine is a partner country of the alliance and not party to NATO’s Article V mutual defense clause. Commons Library Research Briefing, 18 February 2022. Jailed Russian opposition figure and outspoken Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny died at the age of only 47. According to the Russian Prison Service, Navalny felt unwell after a walk and almost immediately lost consciousness. A long thorn in the side of Putin, he returned to Russia in 2021 after being poisoned by a Soviet-era nerve agent. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s top opposition leader and President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest foe, was buried in a Moscow suburb in a funeral that drew thousands of mourners amid a heavy police presence. Navalny, who was serving a 19-year sentence on charges of extremism, died Feb. 16, according to Russia’s prison service. He was moved in December from his former prison in central Russia to a “special regime” penal colony — the highest security level — above the Arctic Circle. In the span of a decade, he went from being the Kremlin’s biggest foe to Russia’s most prominent political prisoner.

IS BIDEN ADMINISTRATION LETTING THE RUSSIANS ADVANTAGE OF MARITIME CONTROL IN THE BLACK SEA BY DELAYING MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE

Max Boot, in a recent article in The Washington Post, reported on criticism from Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, criticizing the shortage of political will in the administration’s unwillingness to more forcefully challenge Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea coast after the collapse of a grain export deal. Since then, Russia has been targeting Ukrainian grain facilities. Putin wants to bring Ukraine to its knees and doesn’t care about inflicting hunger on millions of people around the world who need Ukrainian grain to survive. Yet the Biden administration is not doing enough to contest Putin’s reprehensible power play. Retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe, said in an interview that he thought of a dangerous potential precedent in not more aggressively contesting Russia’s de facto maritime control of a large swath of international waters in the Black Sea. He argued that NATO ships should start escorting merchant vessels carrying food and fuel, keep NATO combat aircraft on constant patrol over the Black Sea, and provide anti-ship missiles and drones to Ukraine to keep the Russian fleet at bay.

According to him, there is no indication that the Biden administration is seriously pursuing any of those options. However, the Biden administration deserves praise for committing a huge amount of money as military aid to Ukraine. But it continues to drag its feet on providing other critical assistance that Ukraine desperately needs at a time when its counteroffensive is not advancing as rapidly as hoped. Breedlove doesn’t mince words in explaining why the administration isn’t more aggressive: In his opinion, the Biden administration does not want to see Ukraine succeed, as in his words, “because we are deterred, we are intimidated, and we don’t want Putin to widen or deepen the war.” Biden’s fears, once understandable, now seem excessive. The Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia should relieve exaggerated fears about the consequences of crossing Putin’s supposed red lines. Providing more aid to Ukraine won’t significantly raise the risk of a wider war — but it could shorten the existing conflict