What Awaits Imran Khan, Pakistani Cricket Legend and Now in Jail On Corruption Charges?

 

What Awaits Imran Khan, Pakistani Cricket Legend and Now in Jail On Corruption Charges?

PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 13, 2023

 

 SRI LANKA GUARDIAN ESSAYS

PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF ON RELATIONS WITH CHINA

Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff in July this year has categorically described the core of China-Pakistan relations. A report from Pakistani newspaper Dawn( August 3 2023) described his comments as follows:- “ Pakistan and China on vowed to cement their “all-weather” and “robust” ties with Chief of the Army Staff Gen Asim Munir noting the bilateral relationship has proven its resilience in the face of all challenges and President Xi Jinping reiterated that Beijing would always stand firm with Islamabad regardless of any change in the international landscape.

Speaking as chief guest at the 96th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China commemorated at GHQ, the army chief felicitated the PLA and lauded its role in China’s defense, security, and nation-building. While highlighting various facets of the deep-rooted ties between the two states, militaries, and peoples, he said, “Pakistan-China relationship is unique & robust that has proven its resilience in the face of all challenges.” Gen Munir stated that PLA and Pakistan Army were brothers in arms and “our relationship will continue to contribute towards safeguarding our collective interests”.

XI JINPING ASSURES PAKISTAN OF UNWAVERING SUPPORT

Chinese president assures Pakistan of ‘unwavering support.  Meanwhile, President Xi said China would always stand firm with Pakistan regardless of any change in the international landscape and emphasized that both countries would continue to improve overall planning and deepen cooperation.   In his congratulatory message on the Decade of CPEC, he said the two countries would continue to work jointly to carry forward the ironclad friendship, coordinate development and security, besides pursuing cooperation of higher standards. He said Beijing and Islamabad would also keep working to take their all-weather strategic cooperative partnership to new heights to make an even greater contribution to peace and prosperity in the two countries and the region. In the message,

CPEC AND BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

President Xi said China would work with Pakistan to achieve high-standard and sustainable outcomes, and further build CPEC into an exemplary project of the Belt and Road Initiative. He said that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was a flagship project of BRI and since its launch in 2013, both countries had been advancing it under the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits. The Chinese leader said CPEC had added new impetus to the economic and social development of Pakistan and laid a foundation for regional connectivity and integration. He said CPEC served as “a vivid testament to the all-weather friendship between China and Pakistan”, and stressed the need for both nations to continue to improve overall planning and scale up bilateral cooperation under it.”

Army Chief General Munir’s comment is of crucial importance because the foreign policy of the country is dictated by the army and has been so for decades. An exception was made for the first time in many years when Prime Minister Imran Khan was displaced by his colleagues in Parliament and lately, he has been sent to jail as his appeal was dismissed by the Pakistani Supreme Court challenging Imran Khan’s earlier appeal of sentencing him to prison.

PAKISTAN’S PRIME MINISTER PLANNED TO DEBAR IMRAN KHAN FROM THE ELECTIONS.

WASHINGTON Post reported(August 9th, 2023) that  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recommended dissolving Pakistan’s Parliament paving the way for a new election after his detained predecessor, Imran Khan, was banned from holding public office for five years.  Shortly afterwards, President Arif Alvi approved the dissolution, just days before the Parliament’s term was to expire.  Imran  Khan who was arrested a few days back after a court sentenced him to three years in prison for corruption, could have been a top contender in the upcoming vote.

As Imran Khan’s lawyers seek his release, Pakistan may now face weeks of political upheaval that could provide an opening for the country’s powerful military to seize more control while an interim caretaker government takes over.  Most states have armies. In Pakistan, the army has a state. Imran Khan denies the accusations of concealing assets from the sale of state gifts during his time in office, and his legal team has appealed his conviction at a high court in Islamabad. But a hearing that followed did not result in his release on bail.

The decision by Pakistan’s electoral commission to almost immediately bar him from office as a result of the conviction is “premature,” Imran Khan adviser Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari opined. He added that the “government is trying to eliminate Khan from the political landscape of Pakistan.” The intent,  Zulfiqar Bukhari said, is to bog Imran Khan down with “frivolous” cases.   While the military and security forces have regained control after violent pro-Khan protests in May challenged their authority, the Pakistani leadership does not appear to have succeeded in breaking Imran Khan’s popularity among voters and supporters of his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), or PTI.   

Imran Khan was arrested after receiving a jail sentence for corruption “If general elections are held, the PTI will sweep the polls, not only in this province but across the country,” said a staunch supporter of a rival party.   The unbroken enthusiasm for Imran Khan among many voters in northwestern Pakistan, where his party had struggled in recent years, suggests that his arrest is deepening a divide between the Pakistani establishment and people who feel disenfranchised.  

While many voters cite easier access to health care and other popular policies introduced during Khan’s term, some also still admire the former cricket star for securing Pakistan’s victory at the Cricket World Cup in 1992, a triumph that paved the way for his quick rise in politics. In an interview with the BBC before his arrest, Imran Khan had predicted that his party would continue to win in elections. “And because of that, they’re dismantling our democracy,” he said. While analysts agree that Imran Khan remains popular, some worry that his rhetoric is fueling tensions. “There is no sign of Khan losing support,” Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani political commentator, wrote in the Dawn newspaper recently.  

CAN IMRAN KHAN DAMAGE PAKISTAN’S DEMOCRATIC PROCESS?

 But Hussain cautioned that Imran Khan’s effort “to bring down the entire edifice” with his populist rhetoric “has done huge damage to the democratic process.” “A prolonged and empowered caretaker administration backed by the security establishment seems to be very much on the cards, putting democratic transition on hold,” Hussain wrote.

Many political analysts expect the Pakistani leadership to find a way to circumvent the requirement to hold elections within 90 days of the dissolution of Parliament.  A Pakistani political commentator said the current governing coalition may be worried about how its 15-month term, which began after Khan was ousted by Parliament in April 2022, will be judged by voters if memories of its performance are still fresh. “This government has been unable to lessen the suffering of people when it comes to inflation and high prices,” he said.

But any government would probably have struggled to succeed, “given the precarious economic situation” when the coalition government took over from Imran Khan last year, he added. The Pakistani political analyst said Sharif’s government could also highlight progress on restoring ties with other countries, including the United States, over the past 15 months, after Imran Khan frustrated U.S. officials by suggesting that they were behind a conspiracy against him. But the government’s most consequential legacy may become its inability to address the deeper frustrations of Imran Khan’s supporters, with many feeling increasingly disconnected from political elites.  

“What seems undeniable is that respect for orderly democratic processes in Pakistan has suffered a particularly severe blow over the last 15 tumultuous months,” wrote Marvin G. Weinbaum, director of the Afghanistan and Pakistan studies program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, in an analysis. For Pakistan, it might be a blow “from which it may not recover,” he wrote. The possibility that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was planning to debar Imran Khan’s political party, Tahreek-I-Insaf from the forthcoming general elections has come to a pass after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recommended dissolving Pakistan’s Parliament paving the way for a new election after Imran Khan, was banned from holding public office for five years.

Shortly afterwards, President Arif Alvi approved the dissolution, just days before the Parliament’s term was to expire on Saturday. Imran Khan was arrested after a court sentenced him to three years in prison for corruption.

CORRUPTION AND THE ARMY’S HOLD IN POLITICS IS DECADES OLD HISTORY

 Crossing the floor due to corruption is nothing new in Pakistani politics, and more so when the Army has abandoned Imran Khan. It may be recalled that Imran Khan came to power as the blue-eyed boy of the army in 2018 and remained Prime Minister for four years. After his ouster, Imran Khan accused the US administration of collusion with the Pakistan Army for his dismissal. The allegation was flatly denied by the Joe Biden administration. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif flew to London for guidance from his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, a three times Prime Minister, now living in exile accused of corruption charges. The problem of Shahbaz Sharif is that in the last provincial election in his home province of Punjab, he was resoundingly defeated by Imran Khan’s Tahreek-I-Insaf party. Imran Khan who remains immensely popular as a cricket legend in Pakistan was likely to repeat his impressive win if he was allowed to participate in the coming general elections. His future however remains in the dark. Pakistan has been suffering from an Orwellian system of governance as described by George Orwell in his famous book NINETEEN EIGHTY-FOUR.  

PARVEZ MUSHARRAF COMMENTS ON BENAZIR BHUTTO’S ASSASSINATION

Violence is not new to Pakistan that started with the assassination of the first Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan and subsequently of Benazir Bhutto, the first female Prime Minister in the Muslim world was assassinated in December 2007. A decade later, Parvez Musharraf, the general in charge of Pakistan at the time and President of Pakistan from 2001-2008, has suggested people in the establishment could have been involved in her murder. Asked whether rogue elements within the establishment could have been in touch with the Taliban about the killing, General Pervez Musharraf replied: “Possibility. Yes indeed. Because society is polarized on religious lines. “And, he said, those elements could have had a bearing on her death.

It’s a startling statement from a former Pakistani head of state reports BBC. Normally military leaders in Pakistan deny any suggestion of state complicity in violent jihadist attacks.  In Neorealism, the structure of the international system is the driving force behind the state’s quest to seek power and security.

JOHN MEARSHEIMER ON REALISM

As per Realist scholar, John Mearsheimer, five assumptions form the core of the Realist framework: a) International system is anarchic in nature. b) States are capable of militarily attacking one another. c) Intentions of other states are uncertain. d) Survival is the driving force behind state behavior. e) States continue to look for ways to ensure their own survival. Additionally, in the anarchic world, a superior authoritative power that dominates all great powers is absent and similarly, the assurances of security are non-existent. In such a world, the sole legitimate interest of every state is to ensure self-preservation by all means at its disposal. including building alliances and amassing power. The states, thus, define their interests in terms of power and security. ( Mohammed Faisal. Research Fellow at the China-Pakistan Study Centre (CPSC), Institute of strategic studies.)  With the commencement of development work under the

CPEC AND BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), both countries also increased their strategic coordination and converged on emerging issues in the regional security environments and at multilateral forums. Coming back to Imran Khan and his future one of his close aides has said that Imran Khan has been slapped with more than 150 legal cases, including several on charges of corruption, terrorism, and inciting people to violence over deadly protests in May that saw his followers attack government and military property across the country. The cricket star-turned-politician remains the leading opposition figure despite his ouster. Independent analysts have described the asset concealment trial as the “worst in history and tantamount to the murder of justice.” Information Minister Maryam Aurangzeb stated that Khan has been “proven guilty of illegal practices, corruption, concealing assets and wrongly declaring wealth in tax returns.”  Any discussion on Pakistan without reference to Indo-Pakistan-China relations would be incomplete and grossly inadequate.

SINO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: STRATEGIC RELATIONS

 Again going back to Mohammed Faisal’s treatise in which he writes In the case of Pakistan and China, both are seeking to protect and project their interests in South Asia vis-à-vis India and the US.  The strategic context of recent developments in Pakistan-China relations is rooted in the gradual emergence of two dyads in South Asia over the last decade: India and the US on one hand, and Pakistan and China on the other. Over the past 15 years, the Asian geopolitical environment has undergone a huge transformation.

India and the US have engaged in political, military, and economic cooperation to deepen their strategic partnership. It commenced in 2005, when Bush administration publicly stated that the strategic goal of helping India is to become a “major world power” in the coming decades. In July 2005, India and the US concluded a civil nuclear deal and signed a 10-year military cooperation agreement.  The Obama administration continued America’s engagement with India.

In January 2015, President Obama renewed the 10-year military cooperation agreement. Six months later, a new defense framework agreement was concluded between them, which paved the way for synchronizing American and Indian militaries while developing protocols to grant each other the use of their respective logistical facilities. Similarly, in India, Narendra Modi after becoming Prime Minister in 2014, also accelerated the pace of newly found engagement with the US. His national security team quickly removed bureaucratic delays. But then critics are not convinced of Narendra Modi’s adherence to the coattails of the US administration.

After the British left India’s first Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru along with a few other world leaders initiated a non-alignment movement that continues to be the beacon of light of successive Prime Ministers of India. Meanwhile, the world has changed from the rule-based world that the leaders of the Yalta Conference that the victorious countries molded according to their will to the countries who now refuse to yield to the wishes of those who used to rule the waves or lived in splendid isolation surrounded by the two oceans. In the meanwhile China has risen from the days of the Nanking Massacre to claim its seat at the table of framing those rules.

CONCLUSION

Countries of South Asia however are caught between Chinese muscle flexing and India’s, albeit surreptitious, hunger for increased influence in the area. Pakistan which considers itself as the savior of hunted Muslims of the sub-continent forgetting that they had voted with their feet to remain in Nehru’s India( before the arrival of BJP and Narendra Modi) remains a thorn in India’s side.

Added is the disquiet in Pakistan itself due to the destructive activities of Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan who get refuge in Afghanistan where the Taliban have recaptured power forcing the US to flee from the country. In this mix of India-China-Pakistan disputes, it is difficult to predict what lies ahead for Imran Khan and his political party. A word of caution should be sounded for the US as the population of Southern Asia The current population of Southern Asia(including Iran) is 2,029,829,646 as of, August 8, 2023, based on the latest United Nations estimate. Southern Asia’s population is equivalent to 25.2% of the total world population. Southern Asia ranks number 1 in Asia among subregions ranked by population. The total land area is 6,400,127 Km2 (2,471,102 sq. miles).

It would be unwise for the US and the Western bloc to ignore such a vast number of people and leave them to the mercy of muscle flexing country. The US would be well advised to take stock that Imran Khan may be out of the picture for now, but is not necessarily gone for good. If his conviction is upheld, he will be ineligible to contest the next election. But because of a recently amended law that limits disqualifications to five years, he would only have to skip one vote. Khan won’t lapse into irrelevance in jail. Instead, his sentence could bolster the narrative that has helped fuel his popularity: that Pakistan’s corrupt political class has it in for him.

World Economics Despite GDP Growth Classifies Bangladesh as A Poor Country

World Economics Despite GDP Growth Classifies Bangladesh as A Poor Country

PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 7, 2023

 

 SRI LANKA GUARDIAN ESSAYS

According to World Economics published in London and its parent Information Sciences have for 30 years specialized in developing economic data series that have become part of the financial world’s DNA. Almost all significant banks, financial institutions, major corporations, and governments have subscribed to its services. According to its latest GDP per capita growth rate Bangladesh continues to be classified as a poor country. But then the “poor country” term automatically brings in the definition of poverty.  

POVERTY DEFINED BY ENCYCLOPEDIA BRITANNICA

Encyclopedia Britannica defines poverty as the state of one who lacks a usual or socially acceptable amount of money or material possessions. Poverty is said to exist when people lack the means to satisfy their basic needs. In this context, the identification of poor people first requires a determination of what constitutes basic needs. These may be defined as narrowly as “those necessary for survival” or as broadly as “those reflecting the prevailing standard of living in the community.” The first criterion would cover only those people near the borderline of starvation or death from exposure; the second would extend to people whose nutrition, housing, and clothing, though adequate to preserve life, do not measure up to those of the population as a whole.

The problem of definition is further compounded by the noneconomic connotations that the word poverty has acquired. Poverty has been associated, for example, with poor health, low levels of education or skills, an inability or an unwillingness to work, high rates of disruptive or disorderly behavior, and improvidence. While these attributes have often been found to exist with poverty, their inclusion in a definition of poverty would tend to obscure the relation between them and the inability to provide for one’s basic needs. Whatever definition one uses, authorities and laypersons alike commonly assume that the effects of poverty are harmful to both individuals and society. Although poverty is a phenomenon as old as human history, its significance has changed over time.

Under traditional (i.e., nonindustrial modes of economic production, widespread poverty had been accepted as inevitable. The total output of goods and services, even if equally distributed, would still have been insufficient to give the entire population a comfortable standard of living by prevailing standards. With the economic productivity that resulted from industrialization, however, this ceased to be the case—especially in the world’s most industrialized countries, where national outputs were sufficient to raise the entire population to a comfortable level if the necessary redistribution could be arranged without adversely affecting output. Several types of poverty may be distinguished depending on such factors as time or duration (long- or short-term or cyclical) and distribution (widespread, concentrated, individual). ( The Editors of Encyclopaedia BritannicaThis article was most recently revised and updated by Adam Augustyn. Published: 22 Jan 2023.).

WORLD BANK BULLISH ON BANGLADESH GROWTH

Why is it that though Bangladesh’s share in global Ready Made Garments trebled in 17 years Bangladesh’s export-GDP ratio continues to be the lowest among Least Developed Countries?  It was almost 12.5 percent in 2022, an almost 12.5 percent decline in a span of 12 years.   While the World Bank appears to be bullish in its outlook for the growth of Bangladesh some analysts do not share this optimism. The WB reports that Exports, remittances, and domestic consumption buoyed Bangladesh’s economy in fiscal year (FY) 2022, which ended on 30 June 2022. Gross domestic product growth was at 7.1%, up from 6.9% in FY 2021. Growth, however, was dampened by the global economic slowdown caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which affected Bangladesh’s economy through a widening external balance and rising inflation.

ADB KEY SOURCE OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a key source of external assistance for Bangladesh, providing $2 billion on average every year since 2016. ADB’s assistance is aligned with the country’s Eighth Five-Year Plan, 2021–2025, and the Perspective Plan, 2021–2041. To date, ADB has committed 701 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $28.3 billion to Bangladesh. Cumulative loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $21.19 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds.

ADB’s ongoing sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh includes 70 loans and 4 grants worth $11.31 billion.1 ADB committed $1.6 billion in public sector loans and grants to Bangladesh in 2022. This included $250 million for social protection and $200 million in microenterprise financing for job creation to support recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Over the strategy’s 2023–2025 period, ADB has a pipeline of 44 firm projects worth $9.5 billion and 34 standby projects worth $7.6 billion. In 2023, ADB will support sustainable and resilient recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the external economic shock from the Russian invasion of Ukraine with a sharpened focus on public financial management, climate change, food security, skills development, rural development, water and sanitation, and the finance sector, among others. Technical assistance will emphasize innovation and promote new technologies.

BORGEN PROJECT ON CAUSES OF POVERTY IN BANGLADESH

The Borgen Project, for example, is a   nonprofit organization launched in January of 2013 to help raise awareness of global issues. The organization seeks to report on innovative solutions in the war on poverty. The Borgen Project provides innovative, national campaign works with U.S. leaders, as an example of being the leader of the First World, to improve their response to the global poverty crisis. Essentially, The Borgen Project operates at the political level advocating for the world’s poor. The organization began in 2003, with the goal of putting pressure on members of Congress to step up efforts to combat global poverty.

According to Borgen Project, the causes of poverty in Bangladesh are tough to tackle, but the country has nonetheless shown impressive improvements and resilience over the years. For instance, the country has made remarkable progress in poverty reduction in the last couple of decades: according to the World Bank, Bangladesh managed to reduce its poverty rate—defined as the percent of the population living below $1.90 a day—from 44.2 percent in 1991 to 18.5 percent in 2010.

CONCLUSION

This reduction was possible thanks to a steadily increasing growth rate of between five and six percent yearly between 1991 and 2010. The growth resulted primarily from Bangladesh’s expanding textile and garment industry, which draws in $20 billion annually and has given jobs to more than four million people. In the same tune World Economics mentioned earlier has reported that Bangladesh’s GDP was some 39% larger than the official estimate and was the fourth largest economy, 10th largest in the Asia-Pacific region, and 25th largest in the world.  It is hoped that in the foreseeable future, Bangladesh’s economy could theoretically surpass, in GDP terms, those of Poland, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 

 

Possibility Of US-China Confrontation? – OpEd

 August 4, 2023  0 Comments

By Ambassador Kazi Anwarul Masud

Joshua Keating, a foreign policy analyst, staff writer, and author of the World blog at Slate, and a former writer and editor at Foreign Policy magazine in an article updated on January 2022 wrote that “war over Taiwan would likely involve the largest and most complex amphibious invasion ever mounted. Were the conflict to drag on, it might well evolve into a building-to-building, mountaintop-to-mountaintop ground war in one of the most densely populated and economically advanced countries on Earth. And that’s just in Taiwan itself”.

Such a venture is unlikely at the moment given the overwhelming desire of the world for peace and the cost involved in the venture for China. 

Despite “no limits” Sino-Russian entente against the US hegemonic policy which has ruled the world since the end of the Second World War, albeit to the advantage of the Western bloc, e.g. US supremacy in the World Bank and European supremacy in European Banks the world has been content with this rule-based arrangement till the British ruled the waves. With the disappearance of British-ruled India and African nations, another strand of policy e.g. non-alignment rose to its head led by Pandit Nehru of India, Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana, Sukarno in Indonesia, Joseph Broz Tito of Yugoslavia and Gamal Abdul Nasser of United Arab Republic.

The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) is a forum of 120 countries that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc. After the United Nations, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide the movement originated in the aftermath of the Korean War, as an effort by some countries to counterbalance the rapid bi-polarization of the world during the Cold War, whereby two major powers formed blocs and embarked on a policy to pull the rest of the world into their orbits. Indonesian President Sukarno held the first Conference of Heads of State or Government of non-aligned countries.

The purpose of the organization is to ensure “the national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of non-aligned countries” in their “struggle against imperialism, colonialism, neo-colonialism racism, and all forms of foreign aggression, occupation, domination, interference or hegemony as well as against great powers politics.”

The countries of the Non-Aligned Movement represent nearly two-thirds of the United Nations’ members and contain 55% of the world population. Membership is particularly concentrated in countries considered to be developing or part of the Third World, although the Non-Aligned Movement also has a number of developed nations. 

China’s Desire To Take Back Taiwan

Joshua Keating adds, “China’s desire to retake Taiwan goes back decades. While still far from inevitable, this nightmare scenario has never seemed more likely. Beijing has sought control of Taiwan, which it considers a wayward province, ever since 1949, when fleeing Chinese nationalist forces set up a government on the island. China unsuccessfully attempted military force against Taiwan in the 1950s and 1990s. For much of that period, Taiwan itself had a superior military to the People’s Republic, and U.S. naval dominance in the region was unquestioned. But in recent years, the balance of power has shifted dramatically, thanks to China’s economic rise and one of the largest and fastest military buildups in history. Until a few years ago, most experts believed China had little chance of successfully taking Taiwan in the face of U.S. opposition. Now, as another analyst has put it, the U.S. regularly “gets its ass handed to it” in Pentagon war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Lately, Chinese leaders have shown signs that they are running out of patience. 

On more than one occasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the Taiwan issue should not be “passed on from generation to generation.” More recently, he emphasized: “The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled and will definitely be fulfilled.” The outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, Adm. Phil Davidson, suggested in congressional testimony in March 2021 that China is likely to move on Taiwan “in the next six years.” Besides a Chinese landing on Taiwan would “be the most complex operation in modern military history,” said Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies U.S.-China competition.

Despite Xi-Jinping’s bravado, it is up in the air what his intention is likely to be. Biden administration has not made clear its intention of the mode of support to Taiwan. Taiwan has been one of the invitees to Joe Biden’s Democracy Summit which has enraged Beijing. Adding insult to injury had been visits to Taiwan by past and present Presidents of US Congress.

Harvard Luminary Stephen Walt in an article argued that NATO must be sustained because of four major areas in which close cooperation is beneficial to European and American interests. Defeating international terrorism; Stephen Walt saw a need for cooperation between Europe and the United States in managing terrorist networks and stopping the flow of money to terror cells. Limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction; Walt argued that anti-proliferation efforts are most successful when Europe and the U.S. work in concert to bring loose nuclear material into responsible custody. Managing the world economy; lowering barriers to trade and investment particularly between the U.S. and the E.U. would accelerate economic growth. Notable differences in trade policy stem mainly in areas of agricultural policy. Dealing with failed states; failed states are breeding grounds for anti-Western movements.

Managing failed states such as Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Somalia require a multinational response since the U.S. has insufficient wealth to modernize and rebuild these alone. In this area, European allies are especially desirable because they have more experience with peacekeeping and “nation-building”. In 2015, Walt wrote that extending invitations for NATO membership to countries in the former Soviet bloc is a “dangerous and unnecessary goal” and that nations such as Ukraine ought to be “neutral buffer state(s) in perpetuity.” From that perspective, he believed that arming Ukrainian armed forces after the annexation of the Crimea by Russia “is a recipe for a longer and more destructive conflict.”

On the other hand, Alexander Gabuev (Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) has taken serious note of the recent utterings of XI-Jinping when he wrote in April 2023 that, “There are changes happening, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping said to Russian President Vladimir Putin last month at the end of a state visit to Russia. “Let’s drive those changes together.” To this, the Russian leader responded, “I agree.”

This seemingly improvised yet carefully choreographed scene captured the outcome of Xi’s trip to Russia and the trajectory on which he and Putin have set Sino-Russian relations. Xi’s visit last month was first and foremost a demonstration of public support for the embattled Russian leader. But the truly significant developments took place during closed-door, in-person discussions, at which Xi and Putin made a number of important decisions about the future of Chinese-Russian defense cooperation and likely came to terms on arms deals that they may or may not make public.

The war in Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions on Russia are reducing the Kremlin’s options and pushing Russia’s economic and technological dependence on China to unprecedented levels. These changes give China a growing amount of leverage over Russia. At the same time, China’s fraying relationship with the United States makes Moscow an indispensable junior partner to Beijing in pushing back against the United States and its allies. China has no other friend that brings as much to the table. And as Xi prepares China for a period of prolonged confrontation with the most powerful country on the planet, he needs all the help he can get.”

Whether these utterings of Xi-Jinping are a preparation for war on Taiwan only time can tell. Given the global demand for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict Russia saving its face and keeping its local base of supporters in check would be the best solution for both Taiwan and Ukraine’s problems. Foreign Policy editor James Palmer is not optimistic about US-China relations in particular due to the cancellation of Anthony Blinken’s visit to China. In his words, “The United States has expressed a desire to establish so-called guardrails around the relationship to prevent mutual bitterness from spiraling into worse conflict. Yet no one in Beijing is picking up the U.S. outreach; in fact, there is active hostility toward establishing such restraints, which Beijing sees as another way for Washington to contain Chinese power. There are Chinese officials who would like to ensure an event such as a sea collision, a U.S. official visit to Taiwan, or a spy balloon doesn’t escalate into an armed clash, but they are an increasingly disempowered minority. In addition to the meeting with Burns, Qin has been busy so far this month. China and Pakistan are cooperating on an attempt to reintegrate a Taliban-led Afghanistan back into the international order; at a recent meeting, Qin promised an extension of Belt and Road funding to the country”.

James Palmer Editor of Foreign Policy magazine is not optimistic of the future of US-China relations. In his own words, “The United States has expressed a desire to establish so-called guardrails around the relationship to prevent mutual bitterness from spiraling into worse conflict. Yet no one in Beijing is picking up the U.S. outreach; in fact, there is active hostility toward establishing such restraints, which Beijing sees as another way for Washington to contain Chinese power.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been busy emphasizing China and Pakistan’s cooperation to reintegrate a Taliban-led Afghanistan back into the international order. In a recent meeting, Qin promised an extension of Belt and Road funding to the country”. Given the fact that Xi Jinping has complete control of all facets of Chinese life and has packed the central committee of the Communist Party with loyalists regardless of their political acumen, US-China relations would depend on the wishes of Xi-Jinping and his coterie. But then the days of the suzerainty of the West or the Sino-Russian friendship “without limit” are gone. Both the West and China have to take into consideration the rest of the world who do not want an unsettled future. Both Xi- Jinping and the possible combatants have time to ponder their moves.