George Friedman of Political Futures on Changes in Moscow
The problem for the West is that many countries perceive its leader, the United States, to be just as cynical as Russia, thanks to Washington’s checkered legacy of interventionism and selective respect for international law.
Earlier this year, George Friedman of Geo-Political Futures penned an article on the recent shake-up in Moscow, terming it “massive.” This shake-up saw the departure of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, replaced by a former Minister of Economic Development. As I noted, the implications of this shake-up remain unclear. It may suggest President Vladimir Putin’s aim to achieve a better balance between military and economic affairs. Additionally, it underscores the deepening friendship between Russia and China, united in their opposition to the nearly fifty-year uninterrupted rule by the US in the so-called “rule-based” world. Many developing countries have embraced China’s call for infrastructure development, despite warnings of a “Chinese Debt Trap” from figures like Donald Trump’s Vice President, Michael Pence.
A Government Shake-Up in Moscow
The Russian government recently announced a significant overhaul of its senior leadership. While several ministers in sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their duties, the most notable change was the departure of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. He was succeeded by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former Minister of Economic Development. Putin has assured that Shoigu, the architect of the Ukrainian war, will maintain involvement in military affairs, evidenced by his appointment as Secretary of the Security Council—an indication of the president’s continued trust. This shake-up, therefore, appears far from a Stalinist purge. Putin has strived to dispel notions of failure within the war management team.
Putin’s Pursuit of Military-Economic Balance
Recent government statements suggest Putin’s pursuit of a more balanced approach to military and economic affairs, justifying the appointment of a former economic development minister to the top defence post. However, reports of the arrest of a senior Defence Ministry official on corruption charges raise questions about potential further repercussions.
Interpreting the Shake-Up
The practical implications of Putin’s desire to balance military and economic affairs remain ambiguous. Such equilibrium is crucial for sustaining armies and supporting civilian needs during conflicts. Given the ongoing war, which has not tipped notably in either direction, Putin’s emphasis on economic considerations could serve to mask significant shifts and alleviate perceptions of crisis. This situation reflects a long-term reality the Kremlin has long sought to downplay, even as other stakeholders struggle to grasp its significance.
Faulty Assumptions and Ongoing Realities
The war began with Moscow’s assumption of swift Ukrainian defeat—an expectation quickly proven unrealistic. Over two years later, Russia controls only 20% of Ukrainian territory, with Kyiv even reclaiming some previously lost ground. While hopes of Ukraine’s imminent collapse persist, the reality of sustained conflict suggests economic distractions may merely delay acknowledgment of strategic setbacks.
China’s Role in Russian Affairs
Putin’s recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping highlights China’s supportive stance, particularly on economic cooperation rather than direct military engagement. Nevertheless, China’s economic challenges in recent years underscore Moscow’s cautious approach to bilateral negotiations. While the US has floated peace talks, Russia’s conditions, notably the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, remain unmet. The reshuffling of government officials, albeit with some assuming unfamiliar portfolios, reflects urgent strategic reassessments rather than weaknesses to be exploited.
Strengthening China-Russia Relations
The burgeoning alliance between Russia and China marks a significant outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. Since Xi Jinping’s state visit in March 2023, multiple high-level exchanges between Russian and Chinese officials and business leaders have occurred, underscoring Moscow’s growing dependency on Beijing. Despite asymmetries in visit frequencies, particularly noticeable in military and security sectors, Russian public opinion increasingly favours China, reflecting broader shifts in geopolitical alignments.
Evaluating Foreign Relations
The Kremlin now evaluates every foreign relationship through the prism of its Ukraine strategy: whether it aids military efforts, supports economic resilience, or counters Western influence. Russia’s robust ties with China effectively satisfy all three criteria, with Beijing’s economic support crucial in sustaining Russian resilience against sanctions and domestic discontent. While both nations refrain from a formal military alliance, their shared opposition to Western hegemony complicates US strategic calculations.
Conclusion
A de facto non-aggression understanding between China and Russia, framed by mutual hostility towards the US, promises further alignment between European and Asian theatres. Putin’s anti-Western rhetoric, defining the Ukraine conflict as resistance against US dominance and advocating for a multipolar world order, resonates globally but fails to garner universal support. As the West confronts accusations of hypocrisy and interventionism, its capacity to influence global perceptions wanes in the face of competing narratives.
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