Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Sheikh Hasina visits India- a view from Dhaka
Paper no. 3629
27-Jan-2010
Sheikh Hasina Visits India–A View From Dhaka
By Kazi Anwarul Masud
Bangladesh Prime Minister’s visit to India on 10-13 January 2010 is being widely discussed in Bangladesh. Many favorably view that in long time the two countries have been able to create an environment of trust and cooperation. Critics fear that given the asymmetric relationship due to the different geographical, economic and population size of the two countries there is a latent fear in some quarters in Bangladesh of social Darwinism may set the tone of bilateral relationship that suggests survival of the fittest. Adherents of this school of thought following Plato and Aristotelian argument in favor of economic self-sufficiency to secure a nation’s power see deepening of Indo-Bangladesh relations as “inherently threatening”. They argue that such ties would be harmful to “national interest” invoking the necessity of political and economic self-sufficiency thereby reducing dependence on others.
In reality in this age of globalization it would be well nigh impossible, and indeed suicidal, to restrict socio-economic advancement of the people by refusing to relate with others who are already positioned in a higher rung of the economic ladder and could become the third largest global economy in a few decades. A careful reading of the joint communiqué issued after the Prime Minister’s visit reveals that not only ours but also India’s concerns on security and terrorism have been addressed and that the two leaders have “put in place a comprehensive framework of cooperation for development between the two countries, encapsulating their mutually shared vision for the future, which would include cooperation in water resources, power, transportation and connectivity, tourism and education”.
Conceptual Framework on Security and Terrorism
The agreements on Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters, Transfer of Sentenced Persons, and on Combating International Terrorism, Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking are essentially covered by SAARC Convention on Terrorism, various UNSC resolutions and international law. Defining terrorism has never been easy. Indeed a uniform definition of terrorism with universal acceptance has yet to come about. US authorities as many others have been able to agree on some of the fundamental elements of terrorism which are (a) terrorism is the unlawful use of violence against non-combatants, governments and societies; (b) it is used to inculcate fear and/or intended to coerce/intimidate; (c) by sub-national groups or clandestine agents; and (d) in furtherance of political, religious or ideological goals. Since many violent acts can attain one or more of the above objectives it is necessary to distinguish terrorism from common murder or assault. To Harvard Professor Jessica Stern, it is the “deliberate evocation of dread is what sets terrorism apart from simple murder or assault”.
Defining Security
Stephen Sachs of Merton College -, Oxford digressing from the Max Weberian concept of security based on the effective monopoly on the use or licensing of violence with the defined territory of the state, calls for “human security” to address the need of the individuals for safety in the regions of basic needsfood, clean water, environmental and energy security, freedom from economic exploitation, police excess, extraction by gangs and domestic violence etc- Sachs adds that the growing reach and sophistication of international terrorism poses a further threat to intra-state violence that cannot be easily solved by military means- security planners must address environmental pollution, ozone layer depletion, global warming, massive migration of climate change refugeesEast/West income asymmetry and inter-state unequal distribution of wealth. Professor J Ann Tickner of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles places importance on ‘structural violence” which goes beyond physical violence to include “the indirect violence done to the individual when unjust economic and political structures reduce their life expectancy through lack of access to basic material needs”. Tickner adds that “true security cannot be achieved until… hierarchical social relations and divisive boundary distinctions are recognized and substantially altered and until all individuals participate in providing for their own security”. Any substantial degradation in the quality of life is also regarded as threat to security. It should, however be acknowledged that to expansive a definition of security runs the risk of making the concept so elastic as to detract from any serious consideration of taking counter measure.
Roots of Terrorism in South Asia
In tracing the roots of terrorism and extremism in South Asia one has to trace the history of the Indian sub-continent that was partitioned on the basis of religion. That religion alone cannot be the basis of nationalism is well known because had it not been so then instead of so many Arab states there would have been one Arab state. Similarly Christendom would have been divided along the lines of the main strands of Christian religion. In Bangladesh apart from HUJI and JMB we have seen the head of the Hizb ul Tehrir (Bangladesh) publicly announced that “we always want to oust all governments in all Muslim countries in the world to establish Khilafat states”. The world is already mired in the militant activities of al-Qaeda operatives. The conflict is not only inter-religious or intra-religious, the hydra headed Medusa has taken under development, poverty, tribal and cultural differences among people to unleash its fangs of poison.
Food Security
The visit has addressed positively the challenges faced by the Bangladesh in the areas of food security (albeit the Prime Minister in her press conference on 15th January has assured the nation that the country has enough food stock to meet future needs) by recognizing that “the eradication of poverty and ensuring food security were great challenges of the century (and) agreed that the international community should initiate a fully coordinated response and address these issues in a comprehensive manner, from short to medium and long term. The basic argument has been that in the face of global meltdown countries like Bangladesh would have to depend on its own resilience to survive the global economic turmoil. Since food is the basic need of the people the government of the day has rightly focused on food security for the people.
Food security is described as a situation in which people do not live in hunger or fear of starvation. World-wide about a billion people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty; while up to 2 billion people lack food security intermittently due to varying degrees of poverty. (source: FAO, 2003). The stages of food insecurity range from food secure situations to full-scale famine. “Famine and hunger are both rooted in food insecurity. Food insecurity can be categorized as either chronic or transitory. Chronic food insecurity translates into a high degree of vulnerability to famine and hunger; ensuring food security presupposes elimination of that vulnerability. Chronic hunger is not famine. It is similar to undernourishment and is related to poverty. The number of people without enough food to eat on a regular basis remains stubbornly high, at over 800 million, and is not falling significantly. Over 60% of the world’s undernourished people live in Asia.. The First Millennium Development Goal is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty, and agricultural productivity is likely to play a key role if it is to be reached on time. “Of the eight Millennium Development Goals, eradicating extreme hunger and poverty depends on agriculture the most. (MDG 1 calls for halving hunger and poverty by 2015 in relation to 1990.) Notably, the gathering of wild food plants appears to be an efficient alternative method of subsistence in tropical countries, which may play a role in poverty alleviation.
Global Agriculture-Hunger-Poverty Nexus
Eradicating hunger and poverty requires an understanding of the ways in which these two injustices interconnect. Hunger, and the malnourishment that accompanies it, prevents poor people from escaping poverty because it diminishes their ability to learn, work, and care for themselves and their family members. Food insecurity exists when people are undernourished as a result of the physical unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access to adequate food, and/or inadequate food utilization. Food-insecure people are those individuals whose food intake falls below their minimum calorie (energy) requirements, as well as those who exhibit physical symptoms caused by energy and nutrient deficiencies resulting from an inadequate or unbalanced diet or from the body’s inability to use food effectively because of infection or disease. An alternative view would define the concept of food insecurity as referring only to the consequence of inadequate consumption of nutritious food, considering the physiological utilization of food by the body as being within the domain of nutrition and health. Malnourishment also leads to poor health hence individuals fail to provide for their families .If left unaddressed, hunger sets in motion an array of outcomes that perpetuate malnutrition, reduce the ability of adults to work and to give birth to healthy children, and erode children’s ability to learn and lead productive, healthy, and happy lives. This truncation of human development undermines a country’s potential for economic development – for generations to come.
There are strong, direct relationships between agricultural productivity, hunger, and poverty. Three-quarters of the world’s poor live in rural areas and make their living from agriculture. Hunger and child malnutrition are greater in these areas than in urban areas. Moreover, the higher the proportion of the rural population that obtains its income solely from subsistence farming (without the benefit of pro-poor technologies and access to markets), the higher the incidence of malnutrition. Therefore, improvements in agricultural productivity aimed at small-scale farmers will benefit the rural poor first. Increased agricultural productivity enables farmers to grow more food, which translates into better diets and, under market conditions that offer a level playing field, into higher farm incomes. With more money, farmers are more likely to diversify production and grow higher-value crops, benefiting not only themselves but the economy as a whole.” The challenge that will have to be faced by the Bangladesh government will be immense. US Agriculture Department in its July 2008 report predicted that the global economic meltdown combined with food and fuel( though now fuel price is going down) hikes will contribute to the ongoing deterioration in global food insecurity with particular negative impact on developing countries that are most food insecure. USDA’s long term projection of price increase states that 90% of the price shift that the world had seen in 2005-07 will persist putting tremendous pressure on low income households. FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Bangladesh in its August 2008 report estimates that 40% or 56 million people are “absolute poor” i.e. unable to acquire the minimum level of food required to maintain normal health; within this 27 million were categorized as “hard core poor” i.e. unable to acquire two third of the minimum level mentioned earlier; and 11 million as ‘ultra poor” i.e. unable to acquire half of the minimum requirement. The prevalence of absolute, hard core and ultra poor increased from 2000-2005 due to population growth. For Bangladesh external sources would reduce i.e. Myanmar due to cyclone Nargis will not be able to export thousands of tons of cereals, part of which would have come to Bangladesh. In Thailand too exportable quantity is expected to decrease. Added to supply side constraint the price of cereals and food-led inflation paints a discouraging picture. Price increases are fundamentally due to climate related disaster, expanding demand for cereals for human consumption and as animal feed, diversion of agricultural land for production of bio-fuel, rising cost of fertilizer, speculation in the price of cereals, lack of investment in many developing countries in agricultural research etc. It would be absolutely necessary for the government to stock food and to import much ahead of any emergency that may occur. Besides if the price of essentials is to be kept under control then subsidy has to be given regardless of what the World Bank/IMF may be advising.
Addressing Cooperation in Energy Sector
It is generally recognized that reproductibility is a key concept of the economics of production (Energy and Economic Growth-David Stern & Cutler Cleaveland). While capital and labor are reproducible, energy remains an important non-reprodicible factor of production. The importance of energy in the economic development of a country can hardly be overemphasized. Mainstream economists think that while land, labor and capital are primary factors of production fuels and materials are intermediary inputs.
Energy Bangle (Revisiting the energy situation in Bangladesh) paints a dismal picture of Bangladesh energy situation. According to the report Bangladesh power is generated from natural gas (82%), oil (9%), hydro (4%) and coal (5%). While the total installed capacity of power generation is 5245 MW, the achievable power generation capacity is around 4200 MW leaving a shortfall of 800MW. Less than half of the population is served by electricity and per capita electricity consumption is only 170 KHz (FY 2006). Natural gas reserve in Bangladesh varies widely. Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ) reported gas reserve of 3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) as of January 2006. Petro Bangla put reserve at 15.3 tcf in 2004. Ministry of Finance estimated in 2004 a reserve of 28.4 tcf of which 20.5 tcf was recoverable. In 2001 US Geological Survey estimated an “undiscovered reserve” of 32.1 tcf.
The other sources of energy are oil that is mostly imported, coal and hydro. Energy Bangla estimated that natural gas requirement from 2000 to 2050 would be 40 to 44 tcf if growth rate is three percent; 64 to 69 tcf with a growth rate of 4.5%; 101 to 110 tcf with a growth rate of 6%; and 141 to 152 tcf with a growth rate in GDP of 7%. It is evident that natural gas would not be able to sustain the economic development of the country if we aspire for growth rate of 10% by 2017 and produce electricity of 7000 MW by 2013 and 20000 MW by 2021.
This aim can be realized if Bangladesh were to deepen regional cooperation in the production of electricity since the Himalayan rivers flow through Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It is estimated that the Himalayan Rivers flowing through Nepal have a hydro power potential of 83000 MW. The Chukka project in Bhutan completed with Indian assistance has the potential to benefit Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. During the visit the two countries addressed the subject of energy insufficiency through Indian agreement to “supply to Bangladesh 250 MW electricity from its grid. In this context, both Prime Ministers emphasized the need to expedite inter-grid connectivity. They also agreed that the two countries shall cooperate in development and exchange of electricity, including generation from renewable sources, and may set up joint projects or corporate entities for that purpose”.
Connectivity
Bangladesh Prime Minister agreed that Bangladesh would allow use of Mongla and Chittagong sea ports for movement of goods to and from India through road and rail. Bangladesh also conveyed their intention to give Nepal and Bhutan access to Mongla and Chittagong ports. Surprisingly some people in Bangladesh apprehend that allowing India to use Chittagong and Mongla ports would “seriously endanger the country”. One may wish to be reminded that Rotterdam, the largest port in Europe, provide excellent access to hinterland reaching Basel, Switzerland and France. Rotterdam functions as an important transit point for bulk material and between Europe and overseas. From Rotterdam goods are transported by ship, river barge, train and road. Likewise Singapore, currently the world’s busiest port in terms of total shipping tonnage transships a fifth of the world’s shipping containers and half of the world’s annual supply of crude oil. It is difficult to understand how road, rail and port connectivity can endanger the security of Bangladesh when the meaning of the term “security” is no longer confined to physical security of a nation but includes food, environmental, freedom from want and poverty, health, education any many other aspects of life that would provide a meaningful existence.
Water Sharing Issue
One of the most serious issues that have bedeviled bilateral relationship has been, seen in Bangladesh, India’s unilateral withdrawal of the common rivers flowing from one country into another. Indian construction of Farakka Barrage is held responsible for navigational, environmental and all other kinds of adverse effects suffered by Bangladesh. In recent time reports of Indian construction of Tipaimukh barrage has generated considerable controversy in Bangladesh. Though it is reported that in 1978 Bangladesh had requested India to build Tipaimukh Barrage to regulate the flow of the river flowing into Sylhet district it is now apprehended that if India were to complete construction of the Tipaimukh Dam it would dry out the river in Sylhet with disastrous consequences. Critics are loathe to accept the assurance given by the Indian Prime Minister that nothing would be done that would be detrimental to the interest of Bangladesh. Critics have also made an issue for the Prime Minister for not concluding an agreement of sharing of Teesta River. If the Ganges Water Treaty had taken so many years to be concluded expectation on Teesta was impractical. The issue was addressed in Delhi and Water Resources Ministers are to meet for expeditious conclusion of a treaty.
Trade
Huge imbalance in Indo-Bangladesh trade has been a bone of contention in bilateral relations. In the fiscal year 2007-08 trade imbalance in India’s favor was estimated at $ 3.6 billion. Indian non-tariff barriers are classification of good, custom valuation, testing requirement, mandatory requirement for labeling and marketing, special labeling of jute bags, mandatory standard requirement, technical regulations, quarantine requirements, tariff value and countervailing duty etc that impede increase of Bangladesh exports to India. Indian agreement to address removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers and port restrictions and facilitate movement of containerized cargo by rail and water, India’s initiative to provide duty-free access to SAARC LDCs to the Indian market and reduction of the number of items from India’s negative list that were of direct interest to Bangladesh are positive developments. One should also note India’s announcement of a line of credit of US$ 1 billion for a range of projects, including railway infrastructure, supply of BG locomotives and passenger coaches, rehabilitation of Saidpur workshop, procurement of buses including articulate buses and dredging projects. The joint communiqué also includes many other issues of importance to Bangladesh.
Conclusion
It would have been impractical to expect one visit to solve all outstanding issues. If anything the visit has created an atmosphere of trust between the two countries that has been lacking for a long time primarily due to our involvement at the instance of another country to act as a transit point and sanctuary to insurgents of north eastern India .The unequivocal assurance given by the two Prime Ministers that the territory of either would not be allowed for activities inimical to the other and resolve not to allow their respective territory to be used for training, sanctuary and other operations by domestic or foreign terrorist/militant and insurgent organizations and their operatives would be beneficial to both afflicted with extremism and other forms of terrorism. One hope that many follow up actions that would be required would be taken in right earnest to bring about the level of bilateral relations to a higher level.
(The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary of Bangladesh)
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27-Jan-2010
Sheikh Hasina Visits India–A View From Dhaka
By Kazi Anwarul Masud
Bangladesh Prime Minister’s visit to India on 10-13 January 2010 is being widely discussed in Bangladesh. Many favorably view that in long time the two countries have been able to create an environment of trust and cooperation. Critics fear that given the asymmetric relationship due to the different geographical, economic and population size of the two countries there is a latent fear in some quarters in Bangladesh of social Darwinism may set the tone of bilateral relationship that suggests survival of the fittest. Adherents of this school of thought following Plato and Aristotelian argument in favor of economic self-sufficiency to secure a nation’s power see deepening of Indo-Bangladesh relations as “inherently threatening”. They argue that such ties would be harmful to “national interest” invoking the necessity of political and economic self-sufficiency thereby reducing dependence on others.
In reality in this age of globalization it would be well nigh impossible, and indeed suicidal, to restrict socio-economic advancement of the people by refusing to relate with others who are already positioned in a higher rung of the economic ladder and could become the third largest global economy in a few decades. A careful reading of the joint communiqué issued after the Prime Minister’s visit reveals that not only ours but also India’s concerns on security and terrorism have been addressed and that the two leaders have “put in place a comprehensive framework of cooperation for development between the two countries, encapsulating their mutually shared vision for the future, which would include cooperation in water resources, power, transportation and connectivity, tourism and education”.
Conceptual Framework on Security and Terrorism
The agreements on Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters, Transfer of Sentenced Persons, and on Combating International Terrorism, Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking are essentially covered by SAARC Convention on Terrorism, various UNSC resolutions and international law. Defining terrorism has never been easy. Indeed a uniform definition of terrorism with universal acceptance has yet to come about. US authorities as many others have been able to agree on some of the fundamental elements of terrorism which are (a) terrorism is the unlawful use of violence against non-combatants, governments and societies; (b) it is used to inculcate fear and/or intended to coerce/intimidate; (c) by sub-national groups or clandestine agents; and (d) in furtherance of political, religious or ideological goals. Since many violent acts can attain one or more of the above objectives it is necessary to distinguish terrorism from common murder or assault. To Harvard Professor Jessica Stern, it is the “deliberate evocation of dread is what sets terrorism apart from simple murder or assault”.
Defining Security
Stephen Sachs of Merton College -, Oxford digressing from the Max Weberian concept of security based on the effective monopoly on the use or licensing of violence with the defined territory of the state, calls for “human security” to address the need of the individuals for safety in the regions of basic needsfood, clean water, environmental and energy security, freedom from economic exploitation, police excess, extraction by gangs and domestic violence etc- Sachs adds that the growing reach and sophistication of international terrorism poses a further threat to intra-state violence that cannot be easily solved by military means- security planners must address environmental pollution, ozone layer depletion, global warming, massive migration of climate change refugeesEast/West income asymmetry and inter-state unequal distribution of wealth. Professor J Ann Tickner of the University of Southern California, Los Angeles places importance on ‘structural violence” which goes beyond physical violence to include “the indirect violence done to the individual when unjust economic and political structures reduce their life expectancy through lack of access to basic material needs”. Tickner adds that “true security cannot be achieved until… hierarchical social relations and divisive boundary distinctions are recognized and substantially altered and until all individuals participate in providing for their own security”. Any substantial degradation in the quality of life is also regarded as threat to security. It should, however be acknowledged that to expansive a definition of security runs the risk of making the concept so elastic as to detract from any serious consideration of taking counter measure.
Roots of Terrorism in South Asia
In tracing the roots of terrorism and extremism in South Asia one has to trace the history of the Indian sub-continent that was partitioned on the basis of religion. That religion alone cannot be the basis of nationalism is well known because had it not been so then instead of so many Arab states there would have been one Arab state. Similarly Christendom would have been divided along the lines of the main strands of Christian religion. In Bangladesh apart from HUJI and JMB we have seen the head of the Hizb ul Tehrir (Bangladesh) publicly announced that “we always want to oust all governments in all Muslim countries in the world to establish Khilafat states”. The world is already mired in the militant activities of al-Qaeda operatives. The conflict is not only inter-religious or intra-religious, the hydra headed Medusa has taken under development, poverty, tribal and cultural differences among people to unleash its fangs of poison.
Food Security
The visit has addressed positively the challenges faced by the Bangladesh in the areas of food security (albeit the Prime Minister in her press conference on 15th January has assured the nation that the country has enough food stock to meet future needs) by recognizing that “the eradication of poverty and ensuring food security were great challenges of the century (and) agreed that the international community should initiate a fully coordinated response and address these issues in a comprehensive manner, from short to medium and long term. The basic argument has been that in the face of global meltdown countries like Bangladesh would have to depend on its own resilience to survive the global economic turmoil. Since food is the basic need of the people the government of the day has rightly focused on food security for the people.
Food security is described as a situation in which people do not live in hunger or fear of starvation. World-wide about a billion people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty; while up to 2 billion people lack food security intermittently due to varying degrees of poverty. (source: FAO, 2003). The stages of food insecurity range from food secure situations to full-scale famine. “Famine and hunger are both rooted in food insecurity. Food insecurity can be categorized as either chronic or transitory. Chronic food insecurity translates into a high degree of vulnerability to famine and hunger; ensuring food security presupposes elimination of that vulnerability. Chronic hunger is not famine. It is similar to undernourishment and is related to poverty. The number of people without enough food to eat on a regular basis remains stubbornly high, at over 800 million, and is not falling significantly. Over 60% of the world’s undernourished people live in Asia.. The First Millennium Development Goal is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty, and agricultural productivity is likely to play a key role if it is to be reached on time. “Of the eight Millennium Development Goals, eradicating extreme hunger and poverty depends on agriculture the most. (MDG 1 calls for halving hunger and poverty by 2015 in relation to 1990.) Notably, the gathering of wild food plants appears to be an efficient alternative method of subsistence in tropical countries, which may play a role in poverty alleviation.
Global Agriculture-Hunger-Poverty Nexus
Eradicating hunger and poverty requires an understanding of the ways in which these two injustices interconnect. Hunger, and the malnourishment that accompanies it, prevents poor people from escaping poverty because it diminishes their ability to learn, work, and care for themselves and their family members. Food insecurity exists when people are undernourished as a result of the physical unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access to adequate food, and/or inadequate food utilization. Food-insecure people are those individuals whose food intake falls below their minimum calorie (energy) requirements, as well as those who exhibit physical symptoms caused by energy and nutrient deficiencies resulting from an inadequate or unbalanced diet or from the body’s inability to use food effectively because of infection or disease. An alternative view would define the concept of food insecurity as referring only to the consequence of inadequate consumption of nutritious food, considering the physiological utilization of food by the body as being within the domain of nutrition and health. Malnourishment also leads to poor health hence individuals fail to provide for their families .If left unaddressed, hunger sets in motion an array of outcomes that perpetuate malnutrition, reduce the ability of adults to work and to give birth to healthy children, and erode children’s ability to learn and lead productive, healthy, and happy lives. This truncation of human development undermines a country’s potential for economic development – for generations to come.
There are strong, direct relationships between agricultural productivity, hunger, and poverty. Three-quarters of the world’s poor live in rural areas and make their living from agriculture. Hunger and child malnutrition are greater in these areas than in urban areas. Moreover, the higher the proportion of the rural population that obtains its income solely from subsistence farming (without the benefit of pro-poor technologies and access to markets), the higher the incidence of malnutrition. Therefore, improvements in agricultural productivity aimed at small-scale farmers will benefit the rural poor first. Increased agricultural productivity enables farmers to grow more food, which translates into better diets and, under market conditions that offer a level playing field, into higher farm incomes. With more money, farmers are more likely to diversify production and grow higher-value crops, benefiting not only themselves but the economy as a whole.” The challenge that will have to be faced by the Bangladesh government will be immense. US Agriculture Department in its July 2008 report predicted that the global economic meltdown combined with food and fuel( though now fuel price is going down) hikes will contribute to the ongoing deterioration in global food insecurity with particular negative impact on developing countries that are most food insecure. USDA’s long term projection of price increase states that 90% of the price shift that the world had seen in 2005-07 will persist putting tremendous pressure on low income households. FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Bangladesh in its August 2008 report estimates that 40% or 56 million people are “absolute poor” i.e. unable to acquire the minimum level of food required to maintain normal health; within this 27 million were categorized as “hard core poor” i.e. unable to acquire two third of the minimum level mentioned earlier; and 11 million as ‘ultra poor” i.e. unable to acquire half of the minimum requirement. The prevalence of absolute, hard core and ultra poor increased from 2000-2005 due to population growth. For Bangladesh external sources would reduce i.e. Myanmar due to cyclone Nargis will not be able to export thousands of tons of cereals, part of which would have come to Bangladesh. In Thailand too exportable quantity is expected to decrease. Added to supply side constraint the price of cereals and food-led inflation paints a discouraging picture. Price increases are fundamentally due to climate related disaster, expanding demand for cereals for human consumption and as animal feed, diversion of agricultural land for production of bio-fuel, rising cost of fertilizer, speculation in the price of cereals, lack of investment in many developing countries in agricultural research etc. It would be absolutely necessary for the government to stock food and to import much ahead of any emergency that may occur. Besides if the price of essentials is to be kept under control then subsidy has to be given regardless of what the World Bank/IMF may be advising.
Addressing Cooperation in Energy Sector
It is generally recognized that reproductibility is a key concept of the economics of production (Energy and Economic Growth-David Stern & Cutler Cleaveland). While capital and labor are reproducible, energy remains an important non-reprodicible factor of production. The importance of energy in the economic development of a country can hardly be overemphasized. Mainstream economists think that while land, labor and capital are primary factors of production fuels and materials are intermediary inputs.
Energy Bangle (Revisiting the energy situation in Bangladesh) paints a dismal picture of Bangladesh energy situation. According to the report Bangladesh power is generated from natural gas (82%), oil (9%), hydro (4%) and coal (5%). While the total installed capacity of power generation is 5245 MW, the achievable power generation capacity is around 4200 MW leaving a shortfall of 800MW. Less than half of the population is served by electricity and per capita electricity consumption is only 170 KHz (FY 2006). Natural gas reserve in Bangladesh varies widely. Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ) reported gas reserve of 3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) as of January 2006. Petro Bangla put reserve at 15.3 tcf in 2004. Ministry of Finance estimated in 2004 a reserve of 28.4 tcf of which 20.5 tcf was recoverable. In 2001 US Geological Survey estimated an “undiscovered reserve” of 32.1 tcf.
The other sources of energy are oil that is mostly imported, coal and hydro. Energy Bangla estimated that natural gas requirement from 2000 to 2050 would be 40 to 44 tcf if growth rate is three percent; 64 to 69 tcf with a growth rate of 4.5%; 101 to 110 tcf with a growth rate of 6%; and 141 to 152 tcf with a growth rate in GDP of 7%. It is evident that natural gas would not be able to sustain the economic development of the country if we aspire for growth rate of 10% by 2017 and produce electricity of 7000 MW by 2013 and 20000 MW by 2021.
This aim can be realized if Bangladesh were to deepen regional cooperation in the production of electricity since the Himalayan rivers flow through Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It is estimated that the Himalayan Rivers flowing through Nepal have a hydro power potential of 83000 MW. The Chukka project in Bhutan completed with Indian assistance has the potential to benefit Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. During the visit the two countries addressed the subject of energy insufficiency through Indian agreement to “supply to Bangladesh 250 MW electricity from its grid. In this context, both Prime Ministers emphasized the need to expedite inter-grid connectivity. They also agreed that the two countries shall cooperate in development and exchange of electricity, including generation from renewable sources, and may set up joint projects or corporate entities for that purpose”.
Connectivity
Bangladesh Prime Minister agreed that Bangladesh would allow use of Mongla and Chittagong sea ports for movement of goods to and from India through road and rail. Bangladesh also conveyed their intention to give Nepal and Bhutan access to Mongla and Chittagong ports. Surprisingly some people in Bangladesh apprehend that allowing India to use Chittagong and Mongla ports would “seriously endanger the country”. One may wish to be reminded that Rotterdam, the largest port in Europe, provide excellent access to hinterland reaching Basel, Switzerland and France. Rotterdam functions as an important transit point for bulk material and between Europe and overseas. From Rotterdam goods are transported by ship, river barge, train and road. Likewise Singapore, currently the world’s busiest port in terms of total shipping tonnage transships a fifth of the world’s shipping containers and half of the world’s annual supply of crude oil. It is difficult to understand how road, rail and port connectivity can endanger the security of Bangladesh when the meaning of the term “security” is no longer confined to physical security of a nation but includes food, environmental, freedom from want and poverty, health, education any many other aspects of life that would provide a meaningful existence.
Water Sharing Issue
One of the most serious issues that have bedeviled bilateral relationship has been, seen in Bangladesh, India’s unilateral withdrawal of the common rivers flowing from one country into another. Indian construction of Farakka Barrage is held responsible for navigational, environmental and all other kinds of adverse effects suffered by Bangladesh. In recent time reports of Indian construction of Tipaimukh barrage has generated considerable controversy in Bangladesh. Though it is reported that in 1978 Bangladesh had requested India to build Tipaimukh Barrage to regulate the flow of the river flowing into Sylhet district it is now apprehended that if India were to complete construction of the Tipaimukh Dam it would dry out the river in Sylhet with disastrous consequences. Critics are loathe to accept the assurance given by the Indian Prime Minister that nothing would be done that would be detrimental to the interest of Bangladesh. Critics have also made an issue for the Prime Minister for not concluding an agreement of sharing of Teesta River. If the Ganges Water Treaty had taken so many years to be concluded expectation on Teesta was impractical. The issue was addressed in Delhi and Water Resources Ministers are to meet for expeditious conclusion of a treaty.
Trade
Huge imbalance in Indo-Bangladesh trade has been a bone of contention in bilateral relations. In the fiscal year 2007-08 trade imbalance in India’s favor was estimated at $ 3.6 billion. Indian non-tariff barriers are classification of good, custom valuation, testing requirement, mandatory requirement for labeling and marketing, special labeling of jute bags, mandatory standard requirement, technical regulations, quarantine requirements, tariff value and countervailing duty etc that impede increase of Bangladesh exports to India. Indian agreement to address removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers and port restrictions and facilitate movement of containerized cargo by rail and water, India’s initiative to provide duty-free access to SAARC LDCs to the Indian market and reduction of the number of items from India’s negative list that were of direct interest to Bangladesh are positive developments. One should also note India’s announcement of a line of credit of US$ 1 billion for a range of projects, including railway infrastructure, supply of BG locomotives and passenger coaches, rehabilitation of Saidpur workshop, procurement of buses including articulate buses and dredging projects. The joint communiqué also includes many other issues of importance to Bangladesh.
Conclusion
It would have been impractical to expect one visit to solve all outstanding issues. If anything the visit has created an atmosphere of trust between the two countries that has been lacking for a long time primarily due to our involvement at the instance of another country to act as a transit point and sanctuary to insurgents of north eastern India .The unequivocal assurance given by the two Prime Ministers that the territory of either would not be allowed for activities inimical to the other and resolve not to allow their respective territory to be used for training, sanctuary and other operations by domestic or foreign terrorist/militant and insurgent organizations and their operatives would be beneficial to both afflicted with extremism and other forms of terrorism. One hope that many follow up actions that would be required would be taken in right earnest to bring about the level of bilateral relations to a higher level.
(The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary of Bangladesh)
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